MLB Prediction Markets

Live game-winner prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, priced against Earl's pregame model. Fees are included in every signal; the model edge is fair value minus the price you would actually pay.

AVOID 2updated 6:43:41 PM

MIL @ TB

Tue, Oct 27, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Milwaukee

kalshi· away· vol 21,109,854

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

51.6%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Tampa Bay

kalshi· home· vol 9,839,909

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

48.4%

model edge

-51.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 48.4c

MIL @ TB

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Milwaukee

kalshi· away· vol 10,957,207

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

53.2%

model edge

-46.3 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 53.2c

Tampa Bay

kalshi· home· vol 13,723,896

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

46.8%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Fair value comes from Earl's pregame margin model turned into a win probability, adjusted for the measured spread of prediction errors. Prices are the venue's own bid/ask in cents on the dollar; a buy must clear the ask plus the quadratic taker fee before it is flagged. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade, and no orders are placed.