MLB Power Rankings
Week 27, 2026 ยท as of 2026-09-27 ยท all 30 teams rated
Every team rated in points on a neutral fieldโ a rating gap is the spread. Movement, strength of schedule, and Earl's take, re-cut each week. How it works ยท RSS
latest snapshot
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ฮ โ | 103-59 | +1.4 | โ | Milwaukee sits at No. 1 with a 1.399 runs-neutral rating, up 0.259 in a week, and a 103-59 record that backs it up despite a near-neutral schedule (-0.002). The market line of 0.31 runs trails the model rating, so this team is being priced slightly under its true value โ a quiet buy. With no key players unavailable and a prior-season rating of 0.848, the surge looks real rather than a small-sample fluke. |
| 2 | ฮ โ | 89-73 | +1.1 | โ | The Cubs grade out at +1.15 runs above average on a neutral field, second in the league, and their rating jumped 0.227 this week, so the market's 0.48 vs. the number says the public hasn't caught up to how good this team actually is. That rating already bakes in a zero-point injury dock with no key players unavailable, so there's no hidden downside, and at 89-73 with a near-neutral schedule (0.034) this is a legitimate buy rather than a soft-competition mirage. Lay the runs with Chicago while the price still lags the underlying number. |
| 3 | ฮ โ | 100-62 | +1.1 | โ | The Dodgers rate 1.062 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, third in the league, and that number jumped 0.242 versus last week โ a clear buy signal on a team already sitting at 100-62. But the market has priced them 0.86 runs beyond even that rating, so you're laying a steep premium on every number; the rating still trails last season's 1.404, meaning this is a very good team, not the juggernaut the price implies. No key players are unavailable, so the rating is clean, but the edge here is fading the public's price, not backing the team. |
| 4 | ฮ โ | 93-68 | +0.8 | โ | The Yankees rate at 0.82 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, fourth in the league, and that number is climbing fast with a +0.315 jump versus last week. The -0.033 strength of schedule says this 93-68 record was built against roughly neutral competition, so the rating is legitimate rather than schedule-inflated. The market is sitting right on top of this rating with zero variance versus the number, so there's no edge either way โ but the upward trajectory makes them a quiet buy if a book lags on the weekly move. |
| 5 | ฮ โฒ1 | 91-71 | +0.7 | โ | San Diego grades as a legitimate top-five team at 0.736 runs better than average on a neutral field, and that rating is trending hard, up 0.467 in a week with no injury dock and no key players unavailable. The 91-71 record and 0.5 vs-market mark suggest the market has this team priced about right rather than overrating it, but the weekly surge signals the current form may be sharper than the full-season line implies. With a near-neutral schedule (-0.015) and a prior-season rating of 0.855, this looks like a hold-to-buy rather than a sell. |
| 6 | ฮ โผ1 | 98-64 | +0.7 | โ | Tampa Bay grades as the 6th-best team in the league at +0.715 runs over average on a neutral field, and the rating jumped 0.336 in a week, so this is a club the model is actively buying rather than fading. The 98-64 record and +0.12 mark against the market say the public price still lags the underlying number, which makes them a live value play whenever the spread sits near a run or less. With no key players unavailable and a schedule that's essentially neutral at -0.033, there's no hidden drag here. |
| 7 | ฮ โฒ2 | 94-68 | +0.5 | โ | ATL grades out at +0.468 runs better than average on a neutral field, good for 7th in the league, and the rating has jumped +0.346 in a week on a schedule that's been slightly above average (0.08). The market sits 0.16 runs below that rating, so this is a modest buy-low window rather than a screaming edge, and with no key players unavailable and no injury dock, the profile is clean. At 94-68, this is a legit top-10 team whose true spread value is a touch better than what books are pricing. |
| 8 | ฮ โฒ2 | 87-75 | +0.4 | โ | Boston grades 8th at 0.444 runs better than average on a neutral field, but the real story is the +0.341 jump in rating this week against a schedule that's been essentially neutral (-0.007) โ that's a sharp move toward the buy side. The market is still pricing them 0.14 runs below this rating, so there's a live edge backing Boston against a typical number, especially with no key players docked and a 0.922 prior-season rating confirming the talent base. At 87-75, this is a team whose recent form is running ahead of its record, which is exactly where you want to be before the market catches up. |
| 9 | ฮ โฒ3 | 76-86 | +0.4 | โ | Detroit grades out at 0.41 runs better than average on a neutral field, a modest edge that ranks 9th, and the +0.505 weekly rating jump is the real story here as a clear buy signal. That said, the 76-86 record against a slightly soft schedule (-0.09) and a -0.243 prior-season rating suggest the market may still be catching up, and their 0.39 mark versus the market says they've been undervalued relative to how they're actually playing. No key players are docked from the rating, so this number is clean. |
| 10 | ฮ โผ3 | 84-78 | +0.4 | โ | The White Sox rate at +0.402 runs above average on a neutral field, up a sharp 0.211 in the last week, and their 84-78 record against a slightly soft schedule (-0.07) suggests the number is real rather than schedule-inflated. With no key players unavailable and a prior-season rating of -0.558, this is a clear buy on a team the market is still catching up to, and the 0.63 vs-market mark shows they've already been covering for backers. At roughly four-tenths of a run better than average, they're a modest but legitimate favorite in most matchups. |
| 11 | ฮ โฒ2 | 74-88 | +0.3 | โ | The Mets rate at 0.338 runs above average on a neutral field, up a sharp 0.455 from last week, and their +0.32 mark versus the market says the betting public has been slow to price this surge. The underlying prior-season rating of -0.185 confirms this is a real in-season leap rather than a fluke, so I'm buying New York as an underrated live number before the market closes the gap. |
| 12 | ฮ โผ4 | 88-74 | +0.3 | โ | Philadelphia sits at a modest 0.292 runs above average on a neutral field, and that rating has climbed 0.108 in the last week, but it's still well below last season's 0.871 prior โ this is a team trending up from a weaker baseline, not a proven contender. The market has PHI at -0.7 versus your rating, meaning the number is slightly shaded against them, so there's a thin buy-low case if the recent gains are real rather than noise. With no key players unavailable and a strength of schedule of just 0.085, the 88-74 record looks a touch better than the underlying profile โ treat them as a slight sell against inflated public perception until the rating closes the gap to last year. |
| 13 | ฮ โฒ4 | 82-80 | +0.2 | โ | Pittsburgh sits at No. 13 with a +0.227 run rating on a neutral field, a big +0.468 jump from last week that says the model is buying this team fast. The +0.17 edge versus the market confirms the number is still catching up, so this is a buy-low-on-the-line situation before the price fully adjusts. A soft 0.106 strength of schedule and no docked injury points make the 82-80 record look like a floor rather than a ceiling. |
| 14 | ฮ โผ3 | 86-76 | +0.2 | โ | Arizona grades out at 14th with a +0.192 run rating on a neutral field, and the +0.154 jump from last week makes them one of the hotter risers in the model. The 86-76 record and +0.25 vs the market says the betting public has been slightly ahead of this team, but the rating still sits below their 0.35 prior-season mark, so there's room to climb. With no key players docked and a soft 0.035 strength of schedule, this is a quiet buy-low on a team the market hasn't fully priced up yet. |
| 15 | ฮ โผ1 | 85-77 | +0.2 | โ | Cleveland sits at a modest 0.171 runs better than average on a neutral field, and that number is trending up sharply with a 0.375 weekly gain even against a slightly soft schedule (-0.1). The market is still pricing them a hair below their rating at -0.09, which makes them a mild buy rather than a fade, though the 85-77 record and 0.414 prior-season rating suggest the recent surge is doing most of the work. With no key players unavailable and zero injury dock, there's no hidden discount baked in here. |
| 16 | ฮ โฒ3 | 79-82 | +0.1 | โ | Baltimore sits at 16th with a +0.123 runs-neutral rating, and the +0.583 jump from last week is the real story here โ this is a team trending up fast, not a fluke. At 79-82 with a near-zero strength of schedule, the underlying profile is roughly a .500 club, so the +0.15 vs market says the number is still slightly undervaluing them. Buy low on BAL before the market fully prices in that weekly surge. |
| 17 | ฮ โผ1 | 80-82 | +0.1 | โ | Miami sits at 17th with a +0.092 runs-neutral rating, a massive +0.332 jump from last week and a full +0.848 swing off last year's -0.756 prior, so this is a legitimate buy rather than a fluke. The 80-82 record undersells them given a modest 0.095 strength of schedule, and their +0.4 vs-market mark confirms the number is still catching up to the underlying form. With no key players unavailable, I'm treating Miami as undervalued and grabbing them before the market fully prices in the surge. |
| 18 | ฮ โผ3 | 77-85 | -0.0 | โ | Washington sits at 18th with a near-neutral rating of -0.006 runs, but the +0.229 jump versus last week is the real story and the market is already paying for it at 0.71 versus the number. That prior-season rating of -1.746 shows how far this club has come, though a 77-85 record and a soft 0.099 strength of schedule suggest the surge deserves some skepticism. Buy the trend cautiously, but don't chase it at a price that's already baked in the improvement. |
| 19 | ฮ โฒ2 | 81-81 | -0.1 | โ | Houston sits at 19th with a -0.149 runs-neutral rating, but the 0.562 jump versus last week is the real story and marks them as a clear buy-low riser. Their -0.253 strength of schedule says that rating was earned against soft competition, so the market's -0.26 gap to their number looks like an overcorrection rather than a fair price. At 81-81 with no key players unavailable, this is a league-average team being priced slightly below average, which is a modest value on the Houston side. |
| 20 | ฮ โผ2 | 79-83 | -0.2 | โ | Toronto sits at 20th with a -0.194 runs-neutral rating, a 79-83 record, and a market gap of -0.31, meaning the betting public has been slightly overvaluing them relative to this number. The 0.217 weekly jump is a real buy signal on the current form, but the 0.736 prior-season rating says this roster is better than the rank implies, so I'd treat them as a modest buy-low rather than a fade. With no key players docked and a near-neutral schedule (0.045), the rating is clean and a fair spread of roughly -0.2 runs makes them a lean against inflated lines. |
| 21 | ฮ โผ1 | 77-85 | -0.3 | โ | St. Louis sits at 21st with a -0.284 run rating on a neutral field, but the +0.19 jump since last week and a +0.2 edge versus the market say the number is moving in their favor. The 77-85 record against a 0.129 strength of schedule makes them look worse than they are, and the leap from a -1.045 prior-season rating shows real underlying improvement. That gap between market and rating makes St. Louis a modest buy-low, especially as an underdog where the spread undervalues them. |
| 22 | ฮ โฒ2 | 77-85 | -0.5 | โ | Minnesota sits at 22nd with a -0.455 neutral-field rating, meaning they grade out roughly half a run worse than an average team, and the -0.15 vs market says the number is already shaded slightly against them. The 0.462 jump from last week is a real positive signal and the -0.868 prior-season rating shows this is genuine improvement rather than noise, so I'm buying the trend but not the team at this price. With no key players unavailable and a near-neutral schedule, there's no hidden upside here, and a rating this far below average means they should be catching a meaningful underdog price most nights rather than laying one. |
| 23 | ฮ โฒ3 | 65-97 | -0.5 | โ | San Francisco's -0.505 neutral-field rating ranks 23rd and lines up with a 65-97 record, so the market's 0.53 cover rate says this team has been priced about right rather than being a hidden buy. The 0.705 rating jump versus last week is the real story, a sharp move for a roster with no docked injury points, which suggests the recent form is being respected quickly. At roughly half a run worse than average, they're a marginal fade in spots where the number hasn't caught up to that surge. |
| 24 | ฮ โผ1 | 80-82 | -0.5 | โ | Texas grades out at -0.534 runs versus an average team on a neutral field, 24th in the league, and the -0.56 vs-market figure says the betting public has been slightly ahead of that number all year. The 0.279 weekly rating jump is real momentum, but with an 80-82 record and a soft -0.195 strength of schedule, this is a sell-high candidate rather than a team to back at current prices. No key players are docked, so the rating is clean, but a below-average club that the market already prices as below-average offers little edge. |
| 25 | ฮ โผ3 | 69-93 | -0.8 | โ | KC rates at -0.778 runs, 25th in the league and a big fall from last year's +0.449 prior-season rating, so this is a clear sell โ the market's -0.1 vs_market adjustment barely dents a team that's already well below average. With a near-neutral schedule (-0.014) and no injury dock (0.0) to blame, the 69-93 record looks legitimate rather than unlucky, and this rating prices them as underdogs of roughly three-quarters of a run on a neutral field. |
| 26 | ฮ โผ1 | 62-100 | -0.9 | โ | At -0.871 runs vs. an average team, the Angels rate 26th and are still a below-average club even after a modest 0.139 jump this week, though the -1.76 prior-season rating shows real year-over-year improvement. Their 62-100 record with a soft -0.153 strength of schedule says the rating isn't hiding anything, and the +0.08 vs. market marks them as slightly overrated by the number, so I'd lean sell on Los Angeles rather than buy the small uptick. No key players are docked in this rating, so the -0.87 is a clean read on a team that should be a modest underdog most nights. |
| 27 | ฮ โ | 76-86 | -0.9 | โ | Seattle sits at -0.882 runs versus an average team on a neutral field, ranked 27th, and the market has them at -1.3 versus my number, so the public is still shading this team a touch too favorably. The +0.509 weekly rating jump is real momentum, but it comes against a soft -0.159 strength of schedule and a prior-season rating of 0.793 that this roster has clearly failed to sustain at 76-86. No key absences are docked, so this is a pure talent-and-form story: I'm selling Seattle as a small favorite and buying them only as a home dog catching a run-plus. |
| 28 | ฮ โฒ1 | 75-87 | -1.0 | โ | Cincinnati sits at -1.033 runs versus an average team on a neutral field, 28th in the league, and that's a big fall from a 0.251 prior-season rating despite a soft 0.208 strength of schedule. The 0.517 weekly jump is the only real positive signal here, but at 75-87 and with the market rating them 0.35 runs worse than this number, they're a sell โ the market is still pricing them closer to last year's team than this year's results justify. |
| 29 | ฮ โผ1 | 58-104 | -1.3 | โ | Colorado sits at -1.32 runs versus an average team on a neutral field, a 0.186 jump from last week and a big improvement over last year's -2.402, so this is a modest buy on the trend even at 58-104. The 0.163 strength of schedule adds context to that rating, and with a 0.43 mark versus the market, the number is still pricing them as a bottom-tier club, which is fair but no longer a full fade. |
| 30 | ฮ โ | 64-98 | -2.0 | โ | Oakland sits dead last at 30th with a -2.034 runs-neutral rating, meaning they're roughly two runs worse than an average team on a neutral field, and their -0.69 vs-market mark says the number has actually been shaded slightly against them all year. The 0.464 weekly rating bump is a real improvement but it's coming off a 64-98 season against a soft -0.093 schedule, so don't mistake it for a turnaround. At this rating they're a sell as a road favorite and a live fade whenever the market prices them near a pick'em. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. ฮ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale โ positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams โ