MLB Power Rankings — Week 26, 2026
As of 2026-09-23
latest is Week 27, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 99-59 | +1.1 | -0.2 | Milwaukee sits at the top of the board with a 1.105 runs-neutral rating, but that number has slid 0.245 in a week and still carries a 0.17 dock for missing arms Brandon Woodruff, Grant Anderson, and Bryse Wilson. At 98-59 with a 0.27 mark versus the market, this is a mild sell-high: the rating says they're barely a run better than average on a neutral field, so any spread near -1.5 is asking too much from a rotation down three pitchers. |
| 2 | Δ – | 87-71 | +0.9 | -0.2 | Chicago sits at No. 2 with a 0.953 runs-neutral rating, but that number is sliding fast, down 0.317 from last week, and the 0.23 injury dock reflects a bullpen missing Ben Brown, Trent Thornton, and Phil Maton. At 87-70 with a 0.64 cover rate, the Cubs have been a reliable bet against the number, though the recent rating drop suggests the market may be catching up. I'd treat this as a sell-high spot until the bullpen gets healthy. |
| 3 | Δ ▲1 | 97-60 | +0.8 | -0.3 | The Dodgers grade out at 0.817 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, third in the league, and that rating is climbing — up 0.037 from last week despite a slightly negative schedule (-0.044) and a 0.32-run dock for injuries to Edgardo Henriquez, Dalton Rushing, and Will Klein. At 97-60 they're a legitimate top-tier club, but the market is pricing them even higher than this rating justifies, with a vs_market mark of -0.82 runs, meaning you're laying extra juice to back them. That gap makes them a mild sell at the current number — the underlying rating is strong, but the price has run past the value. |
| 4 | Δ ▼1 | 91-67 | +0.5 | -0.4 | The Yankees sit at 0.396 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, but that number has cratered by 0.471 over the past week and already bakes in a 0.38-run dock for missing Ryan Weathers, Trent Grisham, and Fernando Cruz. Their 90-67 record and -0.2 vs-market mark suggest the public still prices them near their 1.24 prior-season rating, making this a clear sell-high spot. With a near-neutral schedule (-0.046) and a rating that translates to roughly a half-run edge over a typical opponent, laying anything close to a full run with this shorthanded roster is a losing proposition. |
| 5 | Δ ▲3 | 96-62 | +0.4 | -0.2 | Tampa Bay sits 4th with a plus-0.487 run rating on a neutral field, though that mark slipped 0.011 this week and carries a 0.22-run dock for the absences of Shane McClanahan, Garrett Cleavinger, and Tyler Wells. Their 96-61 record and plus-0.14 against the market say the public is still paying up for this club, so the value sits on the sell side. Fade them laying more than roughly half a run, since the true edge is thinner than the price suggests. |
| 6 | Δ ▲4 | 87-70 | +0.3 | -0.3 | San Diego sits 6th with a plus-0.268 run rating on a neutral field, but that mark has slid 0.1 over the past week and already carries a 0.35-run dock for the absences of Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, and Luis Rengifo. Their 87-70 record against a slightly soft schedule (-0.023) and a plus-0.31 margin versus the market says the public has been pricing them a touch rich. I'm selling San Diego at current numbers until the bats get healthy. |
| 7 | Δ ▲6 | 81-77 | +0.2 | -0.1 | Chicago is quietly a top-10 team by my numbers, sitting at +0.217 runs better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 0.115 in a week — the market is still pricing them off last year's -0.558 disaster, so there's real buy-low value here. The 81-76 record undersells them given a slightly negative schedule (-0.042) and a 0.85 margin versus the market, meaning they've been covering more often than the public expects. The 0.09 dock for losing Joey Bart and Tanner Murray is already baked into that rating, so don't double-count it — treat this as a legitimately improved club, not a fluke. |
| 8 | Δ ▼1 | 87-71 | +0.2 | -0.3 | Philadelphia sits at 87-70 with a rating of 0.218 runs better than an average team on a neutral field, but that number has slid 0.31 over the past week and carries a 0.32-run dock for injuries to Jesús Luzardo, Brad Keller, and Adolis García. The market is pricing the Phillies 0.47 runs better than my number, which makes them a clear sell at current prices rather than a buy. With a soft 0.054 strength of schedule flattering the record and a prior-season rating of 0.871 that this year's club isn't close to matching, I'm treating Philadelphia as overrated until the injury situation clears. |
| 9 | Δ – | 93-65 | +0.1 | -0.4 | Atlanta sits at +0.139 runs versus an average team on a neutral field, but that rating has cratered 0.357 in a week and already bakes in a 0.41-run dock for the absences of Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, and Lane Thomas. The market is even lower at -0.17 versus my number, meaning books are pricing the Braves roughly a third of a run worse than this rating suggests, so there is a thin buy-the-dip case if you believe those arms return. At 92-65 with a 0.103 strength of schedule, this is a good-not-elite team being treated like a fading one, and I would only back them at a discount, not at a premium. |
| 10 | Δ ▼5 | 85-73 | +0.1 | -0.4 | Boston sits at 10th with a rating of +0.099 runs on a neutral field, but that mark has cratered by 0.541 in a week and falls 0.23 short of the market's number, so the public is pricing these guys well above what the underlying model supports. The 0.36-run injury dock for losing Rafaela, Yoshida, and Seigler is already baked into that rating, and with a prior-season baseline of 0.922, this looks like a clear sell-high fade rather than a buy. At 84-73 against a slightly negative schedule, there's no hidden value here. |
| 11 | Δ ▲4 | 83-74 | +0.0 | -0.1 | Arizona sits 11th with a rating of +0.034 runs on a neutral field, but that number is sliding, down 0.016 from last week, and it already carries a 0.09-run dock for the absences of Ryan Thompson and Tyler Locklear. Their 83-74 record against a slightly above-average schedule (0.05) says this is a roughly average team being priced close to fair, with a 0.51 mark versus the market confirming no real edge either way. I'd treat the Diamondbacks as a slight sell at this rating, since the downward trend and injury drag suggest the market may still be shading them a touch too high. |
| 12 | Δ ▼6 | 74-85 | -0.1 | -0.5 | Detroit sits at 12th with a -0.091 runs-neutral rating, and that number is already docked 0.51 runs for the absences of Melton, Flaherty, and Keith, so the true talent gap is even thinner than it looks. The -0.625 weekly drop is the real red flag here, a sharp slide that says the market may still be pricing Detroit closer to its 74-85 record than to a roster missing two starters. With a -0.107 strength of schedule and a modest +0.22 vs the market, this is a sell — the rating implies they're roughly a pick'em on a neutral field, and that's too generous given the pitching losses. |
| 13 | Δ ▼1 | 72-85 | -0.1 | -0.4 | The Mets rate at -0.116 runs versus an average neutral-field team, which is barely below water and a modest improvement over last year's -0.185, but they've slid 0.268 points in the past week. Their 72-85 record says the market has been shading them slightly better than their true quality, so at just +0.2 versus the number they're a mild sell rather than a buy. With Christian Scott, Jared Young, and Jorge Polanco all unavailable and 0.39 runs already docked for those absences, don't expect this rating to climb. |
| 14 | Δ ▲4 | 82-76 | -0.2 | -0.2 | Cleveland sits at 15th with a -0.196 runs-neutral rating, down 0.138 from last week, and that decline is real given a 0.23 dock for losing Holderman, Hoskins, and Armstrong. At 82-75 against a -0.1 schedule, this is a slightly below-average team whose rating already bakes in the injuries, so the -0.15 vs market suggests the public is still pricing them closer to their 0.414 prior-season form than they deserve. Sell Cleveland at current prices until the rating stabilizes. |
| 15 | Δ ▲4 | 75-84 | -0.2 | -0.3 | Washington sits at 16th with a -0.237 runs-neutral rating, meaning they grade as slightly below average on a neutral field, and that number is sliding fast after a -0.161 drop in just a week. The 75-84 record and a prior-season rating of -1.746 confirm this is a mediocre roster trending the wrong way, with 0.3 runs already docked for injuries to Connelly Early, Drew Millas, and Orlando Ribalta. At a 0.89 vs-market mark, the market has been shading them favorably relative to their true rating, which makes them a sell in spots where the number implies competence they don't have. |
| 16 | Δ – | 78-80 | -0.2 | -0.3 | Miami sits at 17th with a -0.273 runs-neutral rating, but that number is sliding fast after a -0.309 drop in a single week and still carries a 0.33-run dock for missing Max Meyer, Pete Fairbanks, and Owen Caissie. The 77-80 record is propped up by a modest 0.09 schedule strength and a +0.4 vs-market mark, meaning the market has been shading this team slightly better than its underlying rating for weeks. At -0.273, Miami is a sell — that's roughly a quarter-run worse than a true .500 club before you even account for the three injured arms/bats, so any spread pricing them near pick'em is a gift to the other side. |
| 17 | Δ ▼6 | 80-78 | -0.2 | -0.5 | Pittsburgh sits at 14th with a -0.167 rating, meaning they're slightly worse than a neutral-field average team, and that number has cratered by 0.324 in the last week. The 0.45-point injury dock is doing real damage here with Keller, Ashcraft, and Endy Rodríguez all out, which explains part of that slide and makes them a clear sell until the rotation stabilizes. Their 80-77 record and +0.13 vs-market mark say the betting public has been slightly overvaluing them relative to this rating. |
| 18 | Δ ▼4 | 77-82 | -0.4 | -0.3 | Toronto sits at 18th with a -0.384 runs-neutral rating, and that -0.436 weekly drop is the real story here — this team is trending the wrong way fast. The market's -0.17 vs. their rating suggests Toronto is still being priced slightly better than they actually are, making them a sell until the rotation gets healthier. Losing Corbin and Bieber for extended time is a material blow to a pitching staff that was already middling. |
| 19 | Δ ▼2 | 78-81 | -0.5 | -0.5 | Baltimore sits at 19th with a -0.486 runs-neutral rating, and the alarming part is that it dropped 0.465 in a single week — this is a clear sell. The rating already bakes in a 0.46-run dock for Kyle Bradish, Jackson Holliday, and Blaze Alexander, so the on-field product is even thinner than the 77-81 record suggests. At -0.06 versus the market, the public is still pricing the Orioles near average, which means you're laying too much to back them and getting a slight edge fading them. |
| 20 | Δ – | 77-81 | -0.5 | -0.2 | St. Louis sits at 20th with a -0.548 runs-neutral rating, meaning they're roughly half a run worse than an average team on a neutral field, and that number has cratered 0.429 points in just the last week. At 76-81 with a 0.3 vs-market mark, the market has been slightly slow to price this fade, and the 0.24 injury dock from losing Hunter Dobbins, Blaze Jordan, and Peter Strzelecki only deepens the hole. This is a clear sell — the rating already bakes in the injuries, and the trajectory says the true number is worse than what's posted. |
| 21 | Δ ▲2 | 78-79 | -0.7 | -0.3 | Houston sits at 21st with a -0.705 run rating on a neutral field, and that number is sliding fast, down 0.335 in just a week. The market is even lower on them at -0.41 versus my rating, so there's no value buying this team right now. With Mike Burrows done for the year and two relievers on the 15-day IL, this is a clear sell until the rating stabilizes. |
| 22 | Δ ▲2 | 68-90 | -0.8 | -0.2 | KC sits at 22nd with a -0.79 runs-neutral rating, down 0.32 from last week, and that decline is real given a 67-90 record and a -0.044 strength of schedule that offers no excuse for the slide. The 0.26 vs-market mark says the betting public has been slower to downgrade them than my numbers have, which makes them a sell in any spot where the price implies even average competence. With Avila and Kolek both on the 60-day IL and Way out 15 days, the 0.21 injury dock is baked in, so treat this rating as a floor rather than a buy-low opportunity. |
| 23 | Δ ▲2 | 78-79 | -0.8 | -0.4 | Texas sits at 23rd with a -0.805 runs-neutral rating, down 0.283 from last week, and that decline is real given a 0.4-run dock for losing Jack Leiter and Cal Quantrill for 60 days plus Higashioka for 10. The market is still pricing the Rangers 0.46 runs better than this rating, which makes them a clear sell — that gap is stale relative to a 78-79 team with a soft -0.2 schedule. Fade Texas as a favorite; the number should be closer to a near pick'em than the current line implies. |
| 24 | Δ ▲2 | 75-84 | -0.9 | -0.4 | Minnesota sits at 24th with a -0.958 runs-neutral rating, meaning they're nearly a full run worse than an average team on a neutral field, and that number is sliding fast at -0.222 week-over-week. The 74-84 record and -0.33 vs-market mark confirm the market has already priced this team correctly, so there's no buy-low edge here. With Buxton, Larnach, and Culpepper all on the 10-day IL and 0.37 runs already docked for those absences, fade Minnesota as a road underdog until the lineup gets healthier. |
| 25 | Δ ▼3 | 60-97 | -1.0 | -0.3 | At 60-97 with a -1.013 runs-neutral rating (25th) and a rating that has cratered 0.655 runs in the last week, the Angels are a clear sell — this is a bad team getting worse, not a buy-low. Their -1.76 prior-season rating shows the baseline was already ugly, and the 0.31-run injury dock for losing Schanuel, Moncada, and Natera Jr. only deepens the hole. Against a soft -0.13 schedule, they're still underperforming, so any market price treating them as merely below-average is overvaluing them. |
| 26 | Δ ▼5 | 65-94 | -1.2 | -0.7 | San Francisco sits at 26th with a -1.177 neutral-field rating, down a steep 0.89 runs from last week, so this is a clear sell — the market's modest +0.2 vs. market mark flatters a 65-93 team. The rating already docks 0.74 runs for injuries, and losing Logan Webb plus Willy Adames makes that number hard to trust as a floor. At roughly -1.2 runs, they'd be underdogs of about -1.5 on a neutral field, and with a near-neutral schedule (0.054) there's no soft landing ahead. |
| 27 | Δ – | 73-84 | -1.4 | -0.4 | Seattle sits at 27th with a -1.387 run rating, down another -0.491 this week, and a 73-84 record confirms this is a genuinely bad team rather than an unlucky one. The market has actually been slightly kinder than my numbers, with a -1.54 vs-market gap, so there's no buy-low case here. With Emerson Hancock, Brendan Donovan, and Colt Emerson all unavailable, the -0.43 injury dock is real, and at roughly -1.4 runs on a neutral field this team should be laying or catching close to a run and a half in a typical matchup. |
| 28 | Δ – | 57-100 | -1.5 | -0.2 | Colorado sits 28th with a neutral-field rating of -1.512 runs, down 0.437 from last week, and that decline is real given Willi Castro, Tyler Freeman, and Sean Sullivan are all unavailable. The 57-100 record confirms this is a bottom-tier club, but a 0.63 mark against the market means the number has been shaded too far against them, making them a live underdog play when the price inflates past the true gap. |
| 29 | Δ – | 73-85 | -1.5 | -0.4 | Cincinnati sits 29th with a -1.566 runs-neutral rating, down 0.415 in a week, and that number already bakes in a 0.43 dock for Chase Burns plus relievers Julian Garcia and Tony Santillan all on the 15-day IL. Their -0.52 vs-market mark says the betting public has been overpricing this 73-84 team all year, so keep selling Cincinnati as a favorite and look to fade them as short home dogs. |
| 30 | Δ – | 62-95 | -2.5 | -0.6 | Oakland is the worst team in baseball by a wide margin at -2.492 runs versus an average neutral-field opponent, and the trend is ugly: that rating fell another 0.751 runs in just the last week. The market has already priced this in, with a -0.82 vs-market gap meaning books are shading them even lower than the number suggests, so there's no buy-low case here. With J.T. Ginn and Jacob Wilson both on the 60-day IL, this is a clear sell and a team to fade or lay against whenever the price looks tempting. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →