Earl's Week 4 NBA Power Rankings: Minnesota Takes Over as the Board Tilts West
The Week the Board Blinked
The story of Week 4 isn't a 3-0 start or a flashy win — it's a 5.7-point rating jump. Minnesota's power rating climbed 5.71 points this week to 17.37, the largest single-week move among the top five, and enough to unseat the previous No. 1 despite a rank change of -3. That's right: the team that was No. 1 last week is now No. 4, not because it fell, but because the teams around it moved. Atlanta held at No. 2, OKC climbed two spots to No. 3, and Houston inched up to No. 4. Detroit stayed put at No. 5. The top of the board is tighter than it's been all season, and the market is still catching up to Minnesota — pricing them 16.45 points per game short of this rating, per the model. That's a buy signal you don't see often at the top.
The Top Five
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (17.37, +5.71, 3-0, SOS 1.64) — The new No. 1, and it's not a fluke. Minnesota grades out as the best team in the league at 17.368 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 5.705 points in a week while they sit 3-0. The schedule hasn't been soft (1.64), and the market is still 16.45 points behind. Expect spreads to move.
2. Atlanta Hawks (13.79, +1.50, 2-1, SOS 3.34) — Atlanta holds at No. 2 with a 13.8 neutral-field rating, up 1.5 points this week against a schedule 3.3 points tougher than average. The market is even higher at 14.8, so there's no free value here — the number already prices in the quality. But the profile is legit: a top-two rating with a real schedule tax.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (12.99, -0.28, 3-0, SOS 4.99) — OKC climbs two spots to No. 3 despite a tiny rating dip (-0.29) because the teams around them fell. A 3-0 start against a schedule rated 4.99 points above average is impressive, and the rating has barely budged. The market sits at -13.7 versus this rating, so the number is already fair — no edge either way.
4. Houston Rockets (12.83, +0.87, 3-0, SOS 6.68) — Houston moves up one spot to No. 4 with a 12.829 rating, up 0.873 from last week. The 3-0 record came against a schedule rated 6.684 — the toughest among the top five — so this is a legitimate top-five profile, not a soft-start mirage. The rating is already 8.2 points above their prior-season mark, and the market's -1.5 versus the number suggests the spread is still catching up.
5. Detroit Pistons (12.42, +0.98, 3-0, SOS 0.57) — Detroit stays at No. 5 with a 12.42 neutral-field rating, up nearly a full point (0.979) from last week. The schedule has been soft (0.57) and the 3-0 record flatters them slightly, but the rating climbing from 8.898 last week shows real improvement. The market matches at 12.42, so there's no edge at the current number.
Risers and Fallers
The biggest rank jump belongs to the Knicks, who moved up five spots to No. 17 — but don't mistake that for a surge. Their rating actually cratered 3.30 points to 0.78 after an 0-3 start against a schedule 3.37 points tougher than average. The rank bump is a function of other teams falling harder, not New York improving. On the flip side, Orlando took the biggest rank hit, dropping five spots to No. 12, but their rating jumped nearly four points (+3.96) — a massive move upward that the market hasn't caught up to. That's a buy-low signal if there ever was one. Toronto is the loudest sell-high: their rating crashed 3.72 points to 6.89, and the market is still pricing them well above that. The board is moving, but not always in the direction the rankings suggest.
How the Board Sets Up
Keep an eye on Orlando — the rating surge (+3.96) against a 10.6 strength of schedule suggests the market is lagging badly. If they keep covering, the number will move. Toronto is the fade: a 3.72-point rating drop and a market still pricing them above the model makes them a sell-high candidate. Minnesota is the obvious buy at the top, but watch whether the market closes that 16.45-point gap — if it does, the value evaporates. And New York at 0-3 with a 3.37 schedule tax is a team to monitor; the rating says they're better than the record, but the trend is ugly.
Earl's Sign-Off
The board is telling you a story: Minnesota is the real deal, the market is slow, and the middle of the pack is a minefield of overrated and underrated teams. Trust the numbers, not the records. I'll be back next week.