NBA Prediction Markets

Live game-winner prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, priced against Earl's pregame model. Fees are included in every signal; the model edge is fair value minus the price you would actually pay.

BUY 24AVOID 39NO EDGE 26INFO 40updated 6:43:44 PM

BKN @ BOS

Tue, Oct 27, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Brooklyn

kalshi· away· vol 6,207,420

bid / ask

2.0¢ / 3.0¢

fair

16.7%

model edge

+14.2 pts

BUY

model 16.7c vs ask 3.0c after fee 12.7c

Boston

kalshi· home· vol 4,542,342

bid / ask

97.0¢ / 98.0¢

fair

83.3%

model edge

-14.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 96.0c vs model 83.3c

DET @ NYK

Tue, Oct 27, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Detroit

kalshi· away· vol 5,992,089

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

41.0%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

New York

kalshi· home· vol 4,224,981

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

59.0%

model edge

-40.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 59.0c

POR @ LAL

Tue, Oct 27, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Portland

kalshi· away· vol 10,209,130

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

37.8%

model edge

-61.7 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 37.8c

Los Angeles L

kalshi· home· vol 11,178,727

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

62.2%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

SAC @ SAS

Tue, Oct 27, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Sacramento

kalshi· away· vol 5,363,294

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

5.5%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

San Antonio

kalshi· home· vol 525,209

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

94.5%

model edge

-5.0 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 94.5c

MIA @ ATL

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Miami

kalshi· away· vol 3,644,258

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

41.7%

model edge

-57.8 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 41.7c

Atlanta

kalshi· home· vol 2,426,308

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

58.3%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

CHA @ DET

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Charlotte

kalshi· away· vol 1,266,760

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

37.7%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Detroit

kalshi· home· vol 1,235,612

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

62.3%

model edge

-37.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 62.3c

Hornets

polymarket· away· vol 1,023,330

bid / ask

18.0¢ / 19.0¢

fair

37.7%

model edge

+19.2 pts

BUY

model 37.7c vs ask 19.0c after fee 16.7c

Pistons

polymarket· home· vol 1,023,330

bid / ask

81.0¢ / 82.0¢

fair

62.3%

model edge

-19.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 79.0c vs model 62.3c

NYK @ CHI

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

New York

kalshi· away· vol 3,932,111

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

56.2%

model edge

-43.3 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 56.2c

Chicago

kalshi· home· vol 2,337,562

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

43.8%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Knicks

polymarket· away· vol 1,532,322

bid / ask

99.9¢ / 100.0¢

fair

56.2%

model edge

-43.8 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.9c vs model 56.2c

Bulls

polymarket· home· vol 1,532,322

bid / ask

0.0¢ / 0.1¢

fair

43.8%

model edge

+43.8 pts

BUY

model 43.8c vs ask 0.1c after fee 42.7c

WAS @ CLE

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT2 markets

Washington

kalshi· away· vol 1,793,747

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

23.7%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Cleveland

kalshi· home· vol 1,035,638

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

76.3%

model edge

-23.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 76.3c

OKC @ DAL

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Oklahoma City

kalshi· away· vol 6,503,137

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

55.0%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Dallas

kalshi· home· vol 4,590,251

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

45.0%

model edge

-54.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 45.0c

Thunder

polymarket· away· vol 3,227,544

bid / ask

0.1¢ / 0.1¢

fair

55.0%

model edge

+55.0 pts

BUY

model 55.0c vs ask 0.1c after fee 54.0c

Mavericks

polymarket· home· vol 3,227,544

bid / ask

100.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

45.0%

model edge

-55.0 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 99.0c vs model 45.0c

DEN @ NOP

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Denver

kalshi· away· vol 424,984

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

-38.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 61.0c

New Orleans

kalshi· home· vol 800,995

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

39.0%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Nuggets

polymarket· away· vol 1,661,993

bid / ask

99.9¢ / 100.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

-38.9 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.9c vs model 61.0c

Pelicans

polymarket· home· vol 1,661,993

bid / ask

0.0¢ / 0.1¢

fair

39.0%

model edge

+38.9 pts

BUY

model 39.0c vs ask 0.1c after fee 37.9c

GSW @ MIN

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Golden State

kalshi· away· vol 2,966,559

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

43.6%

model edge

-55.9 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 43.6c

Minnesota

kalshi· home· vol 2,925,273

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

56.4%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Warriors

polymarket· away· vol 3,015,317

bid / ask

99.9¢ / 100.0¢

fair

43.6%

model edge

-56.4 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.9c vs model 43.6c

Timberwolves

polymarket· home· vol 3,015,317

bid / ask

0.0¢ / 0.1¢

fair

56.4%

model edge

+56.4 pts

BUY

model 56.4c vs ask 0.1c after fee 55.3c

HOU @ MIL

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Houston

kalshi· away· vol 307,192

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

65.1%

model edge

-34.4 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 65.1c

Milwaukee

kalshi· home· vol 525,747

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

34.9%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Rockets

polymarket· away· vol 358,438

bid / ask

86.0¢ / 87.0¢

fair

65.1%

model edge

-21.4 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 85.0c vs model 65.1c

Bucks

polymarket· home· vol 358,438

bid / ask

13.0¢ / 14.0¢

fair

34.9%

model edge

+21.4 pts

BUY

model 34.9c vs ask 14.0c after fee 19.9c

PHI @ IND

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Philadelphia

kalshi· away· vol 6,385,791

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

67.6%

model edge

-31.9 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 67.6c

Indiana

kalshi· home· vol 3,980,657

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

32.4%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

76ers

polymarket· away· vol 1,349,027

bid / ask

68.0¢ / 69.0¢

fair

67.6%

model edge

-0.9 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 67.6c vs mid 68.5c

Pacers

polymarket· home· vol 1,349,027

bid / ask

31.0¢ / 32.0¢

fair

32.4%

model edge

+0.9 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 32.4c vs mid 31.5c

LAL @ LAC

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Los Angeles L

kalshi· away· vol 5,291,044

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

44.1%

model edge

-55.4 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 44.1c

Los Angeles C

kalshi· vol 7,075,773

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

55.9%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Lakers

polymarket· away· vol 3,867,203

bid / ask

99.9¢ / 100.0¢

fair

44.1%

model edge

-55.9 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.9c vs model 44.1c

Clippers

polymarket· home· vol 3,867,203

bid / ask

0.0¢ / 0.1¢

fair

55.9%

model edge

+55.9 pts

BUY

model 55.9c vs ask 0.1c after fee 54.8c

ORL @ TOR

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Orlando

kalshi· away· vol 530,912

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

27.5%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Toronto

kalshi· home· vol 446,135

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

72.5%

model edge

-27.0 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 72.5c

Magic

polymarket· away· vol 791,220

bid / ask

9.0¢ / 10.0¢

fair

27.5%

model edge

+18.0 pts

BUY

model 27.5c vs ask 10.0c after fee 16.5c

Raptors

polymarket· home· vol 791,220

bid / ask

90.0¢ / 91.0¢

fair

72.5%

model edge

-18.0 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 89.0c vs model 72.5c

SAS @ UTA

Wed, Oct 28, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

San Antonio

kalshi· away· vol 2,351,353

bid / ask

99.0¢ / 100.0¢

fair

70.3%

model edge

-29.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.0c vs model 70.3c

Utah

kalshi· home· vol 3,935,473

bid / ask

– / 1.0¢

fair

29.7%

model edge

–

NO DATA

missing model or market price

Spurs

polymarket· away· vol 1,750,477

bid / ask

99.9¢ / 100.0¢

fair

70.3%

model edge

-29.6 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 98.9c vs model 70.3c

Jazz

polymarket· home· vol 1,750,477

bid / ask

0.0¢ / 0.1¢

fair

29.7%

model edge

+29.6 pts

BUY

model 29.7c vs ask 0.1c after fee 28.6c

CLE @ ATL

Thu, Oct 29, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Cleveland

kalshi· away· vol 742,862

bid / ask

48.0¢ / 49.0¢

fair

38.5%

model edge

-10.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 46.0c vs model 38.5c

Atlanta

kalshi· home· vol 410,567

bid / ask

51.0¢ / 52.0¢

fair

61.6%

model edge

+10.1 pts

BUY

model 61.5c vs ask 52.0c after fee 7.5c

Cavaliers

polymarket· away· vol 21,787

bid / ask

48.0¢ / 49.0¢

fair

38.5%

model edge

-10.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 46.0c vs model 38.5c

Hawks

polymarket· home· vol 21,787

bid / ask

51.0¢ / 52.0¢

fair

61.6%

model edge

+10.1 pts

BUY

model 61.5c vs ask 52.0c after fee 7.5c

MEM @ POR

Thu, Oct 29, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Memphis

kalshi· away· vol 345,286

bid / ask

27.0¢ / 28.0¢

fair

26.4%

model edge

-1.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 26.4c vs mid 27.5c

Portland

kalshi· home· vol 382,363

bid / ask

72.0¢ / 73.0¢

fair

73.6%

model edge

+1.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 73.6c vs mid 72.5c

Grizzlies

polymarket· away· vol 84,938

bid / ask

29.0¢ / 30.0¢

fair

26.4%

model edge

-3.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 26.4c vs mid 29.5c

Trail Blazers

polymarket· home· vol 84,938

bid / ask

70.0¢ / 71.0¢

fair

73.6%

model edge

+3.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 73.6c vs mid 70.5c

SAC @ NOP

Thu, Oct 29, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Sacramento

kalshi· away· vol 199,060

bid / ask

31.0¢ / 32.0¢

fair

42.6%

model edge

+11.1 pts

BUY

model 42.6c vs ask 32.0c after fee 8.6c

New Orleans

kalshi· home· vol 51,789

bid / ask

68.0¢ / 69.0¢

fair

57.4%

model edge

-11.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 66.0c vs model 57.4c

Kings

polymarket· away· vol 47,958

bid / ask

32.0¢ / 33.0¢

fair

42.6%

model edge

+10.1 pts

BUY

model 42.6c vs ask 33.0c after fee 7.6c

Pelicans

polymarket· home· vol 47,958

bid / ask

67.0¢ / 68.0¢

fair

57.4%

model edge

-10.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 65.0c vs model 57.4c

CHI @ BOS

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Chicago

kalshi· away· vol 21,664

bid / ask

13.0¢ / 14.0¢

fair

12.1%

model edge

-1.4 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 12.1c vs mid 13.5c

Boston

kalshi· home· vol 6,622

bid / ask

86.0¢ / 87.0¢

fair

87.9%

model edge

+1.4 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 87.9c vs mid 86.5c

Bulls

polymarket· away· vol 12,148

bid / ask

13.0¢ / 14.0¢

fair

12.1%

model edge

-1.4 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 12.1c vs mid 13.5c

Celtics

polymarket· home· vol 12,148

bid / ask

86.0¢ / 87.0¢

fair

87.9%

model edge

+1.4 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 87.9c vs mid 86.5c

DET @ BKN

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Detroit

kalshi· away· vol 15,070

bid / ask

71.0¢ / 72.0¢

fair

62.3%

model edge

-9.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 69.0c vs model 62.3c

Brooklyn

kalshi· home· vol 10,005

bid / ask

27.0¢ / 28.0¢

fair

37.7%

model edge

+10.2 pts

BUY

model 37.7c vs ask 28.0c after fee 7.7c

Pistons

polymarket· away· vol 5,275

bid / ask

71.0¢ / 72.0¢

fair

62.3%

model edge

-9.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 69.0c vs model 62.3c

Nets

polymarket· home· vol 5,275

bid / ask

28.0¢ / 29.0¢

fair

37.7%

model edge

+9.2 pts

BUY

model 37.7c vs ask 29.0c after fee 6.7c

CHA @ WAS

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Charlotte

kalshi· away· vol 3,310

bid / ask

48.0¢ / 49.0¢

fair

45.3%

model edge

-3.2 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 45.3c vs mid 48.5c

Washington

kalshi· home· vol 10,110

bid / ask

51.0¢ / 52.0¢

fair

54.7%

model edge

+3.2 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 54.7c vs mid 51.5c

Hornets

polymarket· away· vol 44,673

bid / ask

48.0¢ / 49.0¢

fair

45.3%

model edge

-3.2 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 45.3c vs mid 48.5c

Wizards

polymarket· home· vol 44,673

bid / ask

51.0¢ / 52.0¢

fair

54.7%

model edge

+3.2 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 54.7c vs mid 51.5c

HOU @ DAL

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Houston

kalshi· away· vol 10,938

bid / ask

63.0¢ / 64.0¢

fair

54.7%

model edge

-8.8 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 61.0c vs model 54.7c

Dallas

kalshi· home· vol 24,038

bid / ask

36.0¢ / 37.0¢

fair

45.3%

model edge

+8.8 pts

BUY

model 45.3c vs ask 37.0c after fee 6.3c

Rockets

polymarket· away· vol 37,899

bid / ask

62.0¢ / 63.0¢

fair

54.7%

model edge

-7.8 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 60.0c vs model 54.7c

Mavericks

polymarket· home· vol 37,899

bid / ask

37.0¢ / 38.0¢

fair

45.3%

model edge

+7.8 pts

BUY

model 45.3c vs ask 38.0c after fee 5.3c

DEN @ PHX

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Denver

kalshi· away· vol 2,193

bid / ask

61.0¢ / 62.0¢

fair

50.6%

model edge

-10.9 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 59.0c vs model 50.6c

Phoenix

kalshi· home· vol 426

bid / ask

39.0¢ / 40.0¢

fair

49.4%

model edge

+9.9 pts

BUY

model 49.4c vs ask 40.0c after fee 7.4c

Nuggets

polymarket· away· vol 2,350

bid / ask

59.0¢ / 60.0¢

fair

50.6%

model edge

-8.9 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 57.0c vs model 50.6c

Suns

polymarket· home· vol 2,350

bid / ask

40.0¢ / 41.0¢

fair

49.4%

model edge

+8.9 pts

BUY

model 49.4c vs ask 41.0c after fee 6.4c

LAL @ GSW

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Los Angeles L

kalshi· away· vol 12,193

bid / ask

54.0¢ / 55.0¢

fair

60.0%

model edge

+5.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 60.0c vs mid 54.5c

Golden State

kalshi· home· vol 17,021

bid / ask

44.0¢ / 45.0¢

fair

40.0%

model edge

-4.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 40.0c vs mid 44.5c

Lakers

polymarket· away· vol 19,463

bid / ask

54.0¢ / 55.0¢

fair

60.0%

model edge

+5.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 60.0c vs mid 54.5c

Warriors

polymarket· home· vol 19,463

bid / ask

45.0¢ / 46.0¢

fair

40.0%

model edge

-5.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 40.0c vs mid 45.5c

IND @ MIA

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Indiana

kalshi· away· vol 16,981

bid / ask

28.0¢ / 30.0¢

fair

28.4%

model edge

-0.6 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 28.4c vs mid 29.0c

Miami

kalshi· home· vol 15,478

bid / ask

70.0¢ / 71.0¢

fair

71.6%

model edge

+1.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 71.6c vs mid 70.5c

Pacers

polymarket· away· vol 54,713

bid / ask

29.0¢ / 30.0¢

fair

28.4%

model edge

-1.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 28.4c vs mid 29.5c

Heat

polymarket· home· vol 54,713

bid / ask

70.0¢ / 71.0¢

fair

71.6%

model edge

+1.1 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 71.6c vs mid 70.5c

LAC @ MIN

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Los Angeles C

kalshi· vol 3,165

bid / ask

29.0¢ / 30.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

+31.5 pts

BUY

model 61.0c vs ask 30.0c after fee 29.0c

Minnesota

kalshi· home· vol 2,707

bid / ask

70.0¢ / 72.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

-10.0 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 68.0c vs model 61.0c

Clippers

polymarket· away· vol 5,498

bid / ask

27.0¢ / 29.0¢

fair

39.0%

model edge

+11.0 pts

BUY

model 39.0c vs ask 29.0c after fee 8.0c

Timberwolves

polymarket· home· vol 5,498

bid / ask

71.0¢ / 73.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

-11.0 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 69.0c vs model 61.0c

NYK @ PHI

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

New York

kalshi· away· vol 27,073

bid / ask

51.0¢ / 53.0¢

fair

49.7%

model edge

-2.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 49.7c vs mid 52.0c

Philadelphia

kalshi· home· vol 20,731

bid / ask

47.0¢ / 49.0¢

fair

50.3%

model edge

+2.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 50.3c vs mid 48.0c

Knicks

polymarket· away· vol 78,333

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 53.0¢

fair

49.7%

model edge

-2.8 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 49.7c vs mid 52.5c

76ers

polymarket· home· vol 78,333

bid / ask

47.0¢ / 48.0¢

fair

50.3%

model edge

+2.8 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 50.3c vs mid 47.5c

ORL @ TOR

Fri, Oct 30, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Orlando

kalshi· away· vol 3,059

bid / ask

35.0¢ / 36.0¢

fair

27.1%

model edge

-8.4 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 33.0c vs model 27.1c

Toronto

kalshi· home· vol 12,911

bid / ask

65.0¢ / 66.0¢

fair

72.9%

model edge

+7.4 pts

BUY

model 72.9c vs ask 66.0c after fee 4.9c

Magic

polymarket· away· vol 7,934

bid / ask

34.0¢ / 35.0¢

fair

27.1%

model edge

-7.4 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 32.0c vs model 27.1c

Raptors

polymarket· home· vol 7,934

bid / ask

65.0¢ / 66.0¢

fair

72.9%

model edge

+7.4 pts

BUY

model 72.9c vs ask 66.0c after fee 4.9c

POR @ UTA

Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM CT4 markets

Portland

kalshi· away· vol 723

bid / ask

75.0¢ / 77.0¢

fair

81.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Utah

kalshi· home· vol 1,313

bid / ask

25.0¢ / 27.0¢

fair

18.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Trail Blazers

polymarket· away· vol 1,145

bid / ask

75.0¢ / 76.0¢

fair

81.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Jazz

polymarket· home· vol 1,145

bid / ask

24.0¢ / 25.0¢

fair

18.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

ATL @ NOP

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Atlanta

kalshi· away· vol 224

bid / ask

59.0¢ / 62.0¢

fair

72.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

New Orleans

kalshi· home· vol 174

bid / ask

38.0¢ / 39.0¢

fair

27.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Hawks

polymarket· away· vol 277

bid / ask

60.0¢ / 61.0¢

fair

72.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Pelicans

polymarket· home· vol 277

bid / ask

39.0¢ / 40.0¢

fair

27.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

PHI @ CHA

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Philadelphia

kalshi· away· vol 1,320

bid / ask

51.0¢ / 52.0¢

fair

51.2%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Charlotte

kalshi· home· vol 4,333

bid / ask

48.0¢ / 49.0¢

fair

48.8%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

76ers

polymarket· away· vol 3,075

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 53.0¢

fair

51.2%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Hornets

polymarket· home· vol 3,075

bid / ask

47.0¢ / 48.0¢

fair

48.8%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

CLE @ MIL

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Cleveland

kalshi· away· vol 429

bid / ask

74.0¢ / 76.0¢

fair

84.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Milwaukee

kalshi· home· vol 353

bid / ask

23.0¢ / 26.0¢

fair

15.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Cavaliers

polymarket· away· vol 153

bid / ask

75.0¢ / 76.0¢

fair

84.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Bucks

polymarket· home· vol 153

bid / ask

24.0¢ / 25.0¢

fair

15.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

OKC @ HOU

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Oklahoma City

kalshi· away· vol 1,381

bid / ask

45.0¢ / 48.0¢

fair

55.2%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Houston

kalshi· home· vol 3,988

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 54.0¢

fair

44.8%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Thunder

polymarket· away· vol 1,477

bid / ask

46.0¢ / 47.0¢

fair

55.2%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Rockets

polymarket· home· vol 1,477

bid / ask

53.0¢ / 54.0¢

fair

44.8%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

SAC @ MEM

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Sacramento

kalshi· away· vol 585

bid / ask

24.0¢ / 25.0¢

fair

26.4%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Memphis

kalshi· home· vol 150

bid / ask

73.0¢ / 76.0¢

fair

73.6%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Kings

polymarket· away· vol 264

bid / ask

25.0¢ / 26.0¢

fair

26.4%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Grizzlies

polymarket· home· vol 264

bid / ask

74.0¢ / 75.0¢

fair

73.6%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

MIN @ SAS

Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Minnesota

kalshi· away· vol 2,300

bid / ask

19.0¢ / 21.0¢

fair

33.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

San Antonio

kalshi· home· vol 1,319

bid / ask

79.0¢ / 81.0¢

fair

66.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Timberwolves

polymarket· away· vol 1,386

bid / ask

20.0¢ / 21.0¢

fair

33.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Spurs

polymarket· home· vol 1,386

bid / ask

79.0¢ / 80.0¢

fair

66.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

BOS @ ORL

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT4 markets

Boston

kalshi· away· vol 80

bid / ask

67.0¢ / 72.0¢

fair

60.0%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Orlando

kalshi· home· vol 1

bid / ask

28.0¢ / 35.0¢

fair

40.0%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Celtics

polymarket· away· vol 13

bid / ask

66.0¢ / 71.0¢

fair

60.0%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Magic

polymarket· home· vol 13

bid / ask

29.0¢ / 34.0¢

fair

40.0%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

BKN @ IND

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT4 markets

Brooklyn

kalshi· away· vol 241

bid / ask

28.0¢ / 34.0¢

fair

30.4%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Indiana

kalshi· home· vol 227

bid / ask

65.0¢ / 71.0¢

fair

69.6%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Nets

polymarket· away

bid / ask

27.0¢ / 34.0¢

fair

30.4%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Pacers

polymarket· home

bid / ask

66.0¢ / 73.0¢

fair

69.6%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

LAC @ GSW

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT2 markets

Los Angeles C

kalshi· vol 63

bid / ask

33.0¢ / 39.0¢

fair

45.4%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Golden State

kalshi· home· vol 77

bid / ask

57.0¢ / 67.0¢

fair

45.4%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

TOR @ LAL

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT2 markets

Toronto

kalshi· away· vol 3

bid / ask

42.0¢ / 48.0¢

fair

40.1%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Los Angeles L

kalshi· home· vol 235

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 57.0¢

fair

59.9%

model edge

–

INFO

elo fallback only - no model prediction for this game· Elo fallback, not a model prediction

Fair value comes from Earl's pregame margin model turned into a win probability, adjusted for the measured spread of prediction errors. Prices are the venue's own bid/ask in cents on the dollar; a buy must clear the ask plus the quadratic taker fee before it is flagged. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade, and no orders are placed.