NBA Power Rankings

#	Team	Rec	Rating	Inj	Δ Wk	SOS	vs Mkt	Earl's Take
1	Minnesota Timberwolves Δ ▲3	3-0	+17.4	—	▲3+5.7	+1.6	+16.4	Minnesota grades out as the top team in the league at 17.368 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 5.705 points in a week while they sit 3-0. The market is still catching up, pricing them 16.45 points per game short of this number, so this is a clear buy and you should expect spreads to keep climbing. The one caution is a strength of schedule of just 1.644, meaning this rating is built on soft competition and the number could come back down once they face real resistance.
2	Atlanta Hawks Δ –	2-1	+13.8	—	–+1.5	+3.3	+14.8	Atlanta grades out at 13.8 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for No. 2 in the league, and that rating jumped 1.5 points this week on a schedule that's been a real 3.3 points tougher than average. The market is even higher at 14.8, so there's no free value here — the number already prices in the elite form, meaning you're paying a premium rather than buying a bargain. With no key players docked and a prior-season rating of just 2.5, this is a legitimate leap, but treat them as fairly priced at best and look to sell if the spread climbs past that 14.8 market mark.
3	Oklahoma City Thunder Δ ▼2	3-0	+13.0	—	▼2-0.3	+5.0	-13.7	OKC rates as the No. 3 team in the league at +12.99 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating has barely budged (-0.29) despite a 3-0 start against a schedule rated 4.99 points above average. The market sits at -13.7 versus this rating, so the number is already priced right at fair value — no edge either way. With no key players unavailable and a prior-season rating of just 8.06, this is a legitimate buy on the team's improvement, not a fade.
4	Houston Rockets Δ ▼1	3-0	+12.8	—	▼1+0.9	+6.7	-1.5	Houston sits at No. 4 with a 12.829 neutral-field rating, up 0.873 from last week, and has opened 3-0 against a schedule rated 6.684 — this is a legitimate top-five profile, not a soft-start mirage. The rating is already 8.2 points above their 4.626 prior-season mark, so the market's -1.5 vs. the number suggests the spread hasn't caught up to how good this team actually is; that's a buy signal. With zero injury points docked and no key players unavailable, there's no hidden downside baked in, so I'm backing Houston to cover and continue climbing the board.
5	Detroit Pistons Δ –	3-0	+12.4	—	–+1.0	+0.6	+12.4	Detroit sits 5th with a 12.42 neutral-field rating, up nearly a full point (0.979) from last week, and that rating already matches the market at 12.42 — so there's no edge either way at the current number. The schedule has been soft (0.57) and the 3-0 record flatters them slightly, but the rating climbing from 8.898 last season shows real improvement, so this is a hold rather than a buy or sell. No key absences are docked, so the number is clean.
6	San Antonio Spurs Δ ▲1	1-2	+8.9	—	▲1+0.0	+7.7	+28.9	San Antonio sits at No. 6 with a neutral-field rating of 8.946 points, up slightly (+0.036) from last week against a schedule rated 7.711, and with no key players docked for injury. The rating has slipped from last season's 10.316, so this is a mild step back rather than a collapse, and the 1-2 record looks worse than the underlying number. The vs_market figure of 28.92 is a big gap, meaning the market is pricing the Spurs far below this rating — a buy-low angle if you trust the model, since their rating implies they should be favored by roughly 9 on a neutral floor.
7	Portland Trail Blazers Δ ▲1	2-0	+8.8	—	▲1+0.2	-9.5	+7.8	Portland sits 7th with an 8.765 neutral-field rating, up 0.219 from last week, but that number is inflated by a -9.454 strength of schedule, so the 2-0 start deserves skepticism. The market's 7.78 versus our 8.765 says we're slightly higher on them than the number, but with no key absences docked, this is a small buy only when the matchup isn't a step up in class.
8	Toronto Raptors Δ ▼2	2-1	+6.9	—	▼2-3.7	-1.8	-7.4	Toronto sits at 6.893 points above average on a neutral field, but that rating has crashed 3.716 points in a week, so this is a clear sell-high signal rather than a team to trust at its current number. The -7.44 vs-market gap says the market has been pricing the Raptors well above what the numbers justify, meaning you're getting value fading them or grabbing inflated spreads against them. With a soft -1.787 strength of schedule propping up a 2-1 record, the rating looks shakier than the win-loss line suggests.
9	Los Angeles Lakers Δ –	3-0	+6.7	—	–+0.4	-4.2	-1.9	LAL sits at 6.682 rating points with a +0.381 weekly move, but that number is built on a 3-0 record against a schedule 4.226 points softer than average, so the resume is inflated. The market is already ahead of the model at -1.93 versus the rating, meaning you're paying a premium to back them and should look to sell high or fade the spread until the competition stiffens.
10	Boston Celtics Δ –	1-1	+5.6	—	–-0.7	+6.6	+5.6	Boston sits at 10th with a 5.602 neutral-field rating, down 0.68 from last week, and that dip came against a 6.598 schedule, so the number is doing real work rather than padding against weak opponents. The market at 5.6 is essentially in lockstep with the model, meaning there's no edge in backing or fading the Celtics at a typical spread right now. With no key players unavailable and a prior-season rating of 5.445 that's already been surpassed, this is a hold rather than a buy or sell.
11	LA Clippers Δ –	3-2	+5.0	—	–+0.3	+0.5	+0.2	The Clippers sit at 11th with a +5.0 neutral-field rating, up 0.31 from last week, and that rating already reflects a fully healthy roster with zero injury points docked. Their +0.21 against the market says the number has been catching up to them, so this is a modest buy rather than a screaming value. At +5.0 they'd lay roughly a field goal to a league-average team on a neutral floor, which is a fair price for a team trending the right way with no absences to discount.
12	Orlando Magic Δ ▲5	1-2	+3.2	—	▲5+4.0	+10.6	+2.2	Orlando grades out 12th with a +3.22 neutral-field rating, a huge jump of nearly four points from last week, and that number is already carrying a 10.6 strength-of-schedule tax against a 1-2 record. The market is lagging badly here: at +2.24 versus the spread, this is a clear buy-low on a team that's outperforming its price, and the rating says they should be laying points rather than catching them. No key absences are docked, so the full-strength number is live.
13	LON London Lions Δ ▲1	0-0	+1.4	—	▲10.0	0.0	+1.4	LON sits at rank 13 with a neutral-field rating of 1.364 points better than an average team, and that number already bakes in zero injury dock with no key players unavailable, so the roster is at full strength. The rating has held flat week over week at 0.0 change, and with a 1.36 vs-market figure the market is pricing them right in line with the model, meaning there's no obvious edge either way. This is a hold, not a buy or sell, until the schedule and results give us a reason to move.
14	TBD TBD Δ ▲1	0-0	+1.4	—	▲10.0	0.0	+1.4	Ranked 14th with a neutral-field rating of +1.364 points, this team grades out as a thin but real favorite against an average opponent, and the rating already accounts for any absences since no key players are docked. The +1.36 vs-market figure sits right on top of the rating, so there's no line value baked in here — this is a fair-price team, not a buy. With zero schedule strength and no games played, treat the number as a prior until results give it teeth.
15	Philadelphia 76ers Δ ▼2	3-1	+1.3	—	▼2-1.7	-1.0	+0.3	PHI sits at 15th with a rating of +1.292 points above average on a neutral field, but that number is sliding fast, down 1.716 from last week, and the profile is soft given a -1.028 strength of schedule and a prior-season rating of -0.508. At 3-1 with no key players unavailable, this looks like a sell-high candidate whose record is outpacing the underlying number, so I'd fade them laying more than a field goal until the rating stabilizes.
16	Denver Nuggets Δ –	1-2	+1.0	—	–-0.3	+4.1	+7.8	Denver sits at 16th with a 1.025 neutral-field rating, a steep -0.33 drop from last week, and a 4.093 strength of schedule that says the 1-2 record came against real competition. The prior-season rating of 4.0 versus the current 1.025 is the loudest signal here: this team has fallen well below its own baseline, so I'm selling until the number stabilizes. The vs_market gap of 7.75 also flags them as overpriced relative to what the ratings say, making them a fade candidate when the spread asks them to cover more than their profile supports.
17	New York Knicks Δ ▼5	0-3	+0.8	—	▼5-3.3	+3.4	+0.8	The Knicks sit at 17th with a neutral-field rating of just 0.778 points, and that number is cratering — down 3.298 versus last week after an 0-3 start against a schedule 3.372 points tougher than average. The prior-season rating of 7.145 shows how far they've fallen, and with a vs-market mark of 0.78 they're priced about where the numbers say they belong, so this is a sell until the rating stabilizes.
18	Memphis Grizzlies Δ ▲2	3-0	-2.6	—	▲2+1.9	-9.5	-1.7	Memphis sits at 18th with a -2.587 neutral-field rating, but the 1.9-point jump versus last week is the real signal here — this team is trending up fast. The catch is that 3-0 record came against a schedule rated -9.463, so the wins are softer than they look, and the market's -1.67 vs. their rating suggests the number is already shaded toward the hype. With no key absences docked, I'm a cautious buy on the rating climb but a sell on laying points until they prove it against real competition.
19	Dallas Mavericks Δ –	1-2	-2.7	—	–+0.5	+5.6	+11.7	Dallas sits at 19th with a -2.683 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a field-goal underdog to an average team, and that number is climbing (+0.529 week over week) against the 5th-toughest schedule in the league. The market is pricing them 11.65 points better than this rating, which screams overrated — I'm selling Dallas and laying the points against them until the rating catches up to the hype.
20	Cleveland Cavaliers Δ ▼2	1-1	-3.3	—	▼2-1.2	-7.6	-2.3	Cleveland sits at 20th with a -3.31 neutral-field rating, down 1.18 points from last week, and that rating has already fallen well below the market's -2.32, so the number is telling you this team is worse than its price. The schedule has been soft (-7.64), yet the rating still dropped, which makes this a clear sell until the line catches up to the data.
21	Indiana Pacers Δ –	2-1	-4.9	—	–+0.2	-8.3	-15.4	Indiana sits at 21st with a -4.938 neutral-field rating, up slightly (0.167) from last week but still well below average, and that number is inflated by a soft -8.32 strength of schedule that masks how weak this team really is. The vs_market figure of -15.39 is the real red flag: the rating is 15 points worse than the market's implied line, meaning the public is badly overrating the Hoosiers and this is a clear sell. Lay the points against them before the market catches up to what the numbers already show.
22	Miami Heat Δ ▲2	0-3	-5.2	—	▲2+0.9	+7.9	-4.3	Miami sits at 22nd with a -5.18 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly five points worse than an average team, and that number already accounts for zero injury dock, so there's no hidden absence excuse baked in. Their rating is a full 4.26 points below the market's view, which screams overrated by the books even after a modest 0.86-point weekly bump. With an 0-3 record against the seventh-toughest schedule, this is a sell — fade Miami as a favorite and look to take points with them only when the line overprices the brand.
23	New Orleans Pelicans Δ –	0-3	-5.7	—	–-0.2	-4.7	+4.7	New Orleans sits at 23rd with a -5.71 neutral-field rating, down slightly from last week, and that number already reflects a soft -4.65 strength of schedule, so there's no schedule tax to hide behind. The market has them at +4.74 versus my number, meaning the public is pricing this team nearly five points better than the rating justifies — that's a clear sell, and I'd fade them laying anything close to a typical spread. With an 0-3 record and no key absences to blame, this is a bad team the market hasn't fully caught up to yet.
24	Charlotte Hornets Δ ▼2	2-1	-6.0	—	▼2-0.7	-2.7	-12.7	Charlotte rates at -6.03 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, which is a massive fall from a prior-season rating of +8.03, and the trend is still pointing down at -0.656 week over week. That -12.67 gap against the market says the number is still catching up to how bad this team actually is, so I'm selling Charlotte and laying the points until the rating stabilizes.
25	Golden State Warriors Δ ▲2	0-4	-7.6	—	▲2+0.1	+0.2	+1.0	Golden State sits at 25th with a -7.63 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 7.5-point underdog to an average team, and the 0-4 record confirms this isn't just noise. The rating has ticked up slightly (+0.13) and their prior-season mark of -5.49 shows real decline, but with no key players docked and a soft 0.224 strength of schedule, this is a clear sell — the market (0.98 vs. spread) hasn't fully priced how bad this team is.
26	Phoenix Suns Δ –	1-1	-8.2	—	–-0.6	+0.6	-7.2	At -8.203 points vs. an average team on a neutral field, PHX ranks 26th and grades as one of the worst teams in the league, and the trend is going the wrong way with a -0.634 rating change this week. The market is actually pricing them even lower than the model, with a -7.22 vs-market gap, so there is no buy-low case here — this is a sell or a fade, and laying roughly 8 points against them in a neutral spot is a fair ask. With a 1-1 record and no listed absences to blame, the poor rating is a talent problem, not an injury one.
27	Washington Wizards Δ ▼2	2-1	-8.4	—	▼2-1.0	-7.1	-13.2	Washington sits at -8.428 points versus an average team on a neutral field, ranked 27th, and that rating is trending the wrong way after a -0.954 drop this week. The schedule has been soft at -7.136, so even this modest rating may be flattering, and the market gap of -13.23 versus their number screams that bettors are overvaluing them relative to what the metrics actually show. With no key absences docked, this is a clear sell — fade Washington as a favorite and look to take points against them whenever the number lags their true rating.
28	Utah Jazz Δ ▲1	1-2	-10.0	—	▲1+0.4	-0.5	-11.0	Utah sits at 28th with a -10.05 neutral-field rating, up 0.40 from last week but still well below the -0.54 strength of schedule they've faced, and the market has them at -10.97 — meaning the number is pricing them about a point worse than this rating suggests. That gap makes them a mild buy-low on the spread, though a -10 rating means they're still getting roughly double digits against an average opponent. With no key players listed as unavailable, there's no injury dock to blame, so the rating reflects genuine on-court weakness rather than a depleted roster.
29	Sacramento Kings Δ ▼1	0-3	-10.7	—	▼1-1.0	+3.7	-5.9	Sacramento sits at 29th with a -10.7 neutral-field rating that's trending the wrong way, down another point from last week, and a brutal 3.7 strength of schedule explains part of the 0-3 start but not all of it. The market has already priced this in, with the rating running 5.9 points worse than the actual lines, so the books are giving this team more respect than the numbers do. That gap makes Sacramento a sell until the rating stabilizes, since backing them means laying points the underlying performance doesn't support.
30	Milwaukee Bucks Δ ▲1	0-3	-14.0	—	▲1-1.2	-7.1	-9.2	Milwaukee ranks dead last at -14.0 points versus an average team on a neutral field, and that number is still trending the wrong way at -1.2 week over week. The market has been far too generous with this team, as their -9.2 against the spread gap suggests the lines are still pricing them well above their actual level. That makes them a clear sell until the number catches up to a rating that's now even worse than last season's -10.2.
31	Chicago Bulls Δ ▼1	1-2	-14.3	—	▼1-1.6	-5.2	+0.0	Chicago grades out at -14.3 points versus an average team on a neutral field, ranked 31st, and that's a 1.6-point slide from last week plus a brutal 5.2-point drop from last season's -8.6 — this is a clear sell, not a buy-low. The 1-2 record with a near-zero vs-market mark of 0.03 says the market hasn't fully priced in how bad this team actually is, so lay the points against them while the number still lags.
32	Brooklyn Nets Δ –	0-3	-16.6	—	–-0.5	-4.8	-9.9	Brooklyn grades out at -16.6 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 32nd in the league, and that number is still drifting the wrong way at -0.475 week over week despite a soft -4.759 schedule. The market has already punished them, as the -9.93 gap between their rating and the number says books are pricing this team well below its raw grade, which makes them a stay-away rather than a buy-low. This is a firm sell: at roughly 16.5 points worse than average, they are a spread-covering liability against anyone competent.

Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →