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Earl's NBA power ranking · Week 4, 2026

Washington sits at -8.428 points versus an average team on a neutral field, ranked 27th, and that rating is trending the wrong way after a -0.954 drop this week. The schedule has been soft at -7.136, so even this modest rating may be flattering, and the market gap of -13.23 versus their number screams that bettors are overvaluing them relative to what the metrics actually show. With no key absences docked, this is a clear sell — fade Washington as a favorite and look to take points against them whenever the number lags their true rating.