NFL Power Rankings Week 7: Jaguars Stay on Top, But the Board Is Catching Fire

by Earl·October 27, 2026

The Ledger: Jags Hold Steady While the Board Catches Fire

Another week, another reminder that the NFL power rankings are a living, breathing thing—and right now, the board is moving faster than a rookie cornerback on a double move. Jacksonville remains at No. 1 with an 8.65 rating, but that number is down 0.37 from last week and a full 1.64 points below where they finished last season. That's not a crisis, but it's a trend. The Jags are winning with grind, not dominance: 19.6 points scored vs. 15.4 allowed over their last five, with a modest 0.152 EPA per play. It's a profile that says "good team" more than "juggernaut." Behind them, the board is anything but stable. Cincinnati jumped 2.92 points, Seattle added 1.76, and Chicago—despite a 3.84-point rating spike—looks like a sell-high candidate. The theme of Week 7: the top is holding, but the middle is a blender.

The Top Five

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (8.65, -0.37 wk, 3-2, SOS 0.13)
The Jags stay on top, but the shine is fading. Their rating dropped 0.37 this week and sits well below last year's 10.30 mark. The profile is more grind than blowout: 19.6 points scored vs. 15.4 allowed over the last five, a modest 0.152 EPA per play. It's a team that wins, but doesn't overwhelm. Until that changes, the gap between No. 1 and the field is thinner than it looks.

2. Minnesota Vikings (6.88, -0.42 wk, 5-0, SOS 0.42)
The Vikings are the real deal at No. 2, even after a 0.42-point dip. Their 5-0 record is backed by a 10.0-point differential over the last five and a plus-0.135 EPA per play, driven by a defense allowing just 10.8 points per game. The market is still catching up, with a 5.36 vs-market edge. Minnesota is a buy until further notice.

3. Seattle Seahawks (5.62, +1.76 wk, 3-3, SOS 1.20)
Seattle jumped 1.76 points this week to grab the No. 3 spot, but the underlying profile is thin: 21.0 points scored against 17.8 allowed with just a 0.0357 EPA edge per play. The -0.46 vs-market figure says the public is slightly ahead of the rating. The Seahawks are trending up, but they're not out of the woods yet.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (5.25, +2.92 wk, 4-1, SOS -0.37)
Cincinnati is the week's biggest mover among the top five, surging 2.92 points to No. 4. The underlying form backs it: plus-6.0 point differential and plus-0.0916 EPA per play over the last five, despite a 22.2 points-per-game offense that hasn't hit its ceiling. The market is still 2.89 points behind the rating, making the Bengals a clear buy.

5. Buffalo Bills (3.97, +0.40 wk, 5-0, SOS -1.05)
Buffalo rounds out the top five with a 3.97 rating, up 0.40 this week, but that number is propped up by a soft schedule (-1.05) and still trails last year's 4.50 prior. The market is already pricing them 2.09 points richer than our rating, so this is a sell-high spot—lay the points only when the number stays under a certain threshold.

Risers and Fallers

The biggest rating jumps this week belong to Tampa Bay (+10.71), Washington (+6.82), and Pittsburgh (+4.34). But don't be fooled by the raw numbers. Tampa Bay's 10.7-point surge is the largest signal, yet the market already has them 4.3 points better than the rating implies—the books are ahead of the curve. Washington's 6.82-point jump looks impressive, but their -5.25 point differential over the last five says it's more noise than signal. Pittsburgh's 4.34-point spike is equally suspect: a -0.039 EPA differential and just +0.4 point differential over the last five while allowing 23.0 points per game. That's a sell-high spot if there ever was one.

On the flip side, the biggest rank fallers are Tampa Bay (-15), Washington (-10), and Chicago (-6). The Bears' 3.84-point rating jump is fool's gold: their last-five profile is ugly—13.6 points per game on offense, -0.5 point differential, and just 0.03 EPA per play. The market line of 4.25 is a full point above the rating, so this is a sell-high spot on a team whose 4-2 record is masking a mediocre profile. Carolina's -6.99 weekly drop is the loudest negative number, and while their last-five profile (22.8 PPG scored, 19.4 allowed, +0.113 EPA per play) is better than a 2-3 record suggests, the rating is heading the wrong way.

How the Board Sets Up

A few teams to watch next week, based on the numbers:

Denver Broncos (No. 9, 3.18, +0.92 wk, 5-1, SOS 1.39): The Broncos are a buy. Their 5-1 record against a 1.39 schedule strength says this is real, and the market is still pricing them 1.38 points below their rating. A live cover candidate.
Los Angeles Rams (No. 10, 3.03, +1.46 wk, 2-4, SOS -0.24): The Rams' rating jumped 1.46 points despite a 2-4 record. Their last-five profile is quietly solid: positive 0.175 EPA diff per play and a defense allowing just 18.2 points per game. The market hasn't caught up.
Atlanta Falcons (No. 17, -1.40, +0.86 wk, 3-4, SOS 0.73): Atlanta is a clear buy. The market prices them 3.12 points worse than our number, and their offense is scoring 25.8 per game over the last five. The rating is trending up.
San Francisco 49ers (No. 12, 0.95, -2.48 wk, 5-1, SOS -0.95): The 49ers' rating cratered 2.48 points, and with injuries mounting, the market may still be catching up. But the underlying form is genuinely good—plus-0.285 EPA per play and a 9.25 point differential over the last five. A buy-low if the number gets too low.

The Sign-Off

That's the board after Week 7. The top is holding, but the middle is a blender—and the numbers are screaming that some of these records are mirages. Trust the rating, not the win-loss column. We'll be back next week with another edition of Earl Knows Ball. Until then, keep your numbers close and your biases closer.