NFL Power Rankings
Week 7, 2026 · as of 2026-10-27 · all 32 teams rated
Every team rated in points on a neutral field— a rating gap is the spread. Movement, strength of schedule, and Earl's take, re-cut each week. How it works · RSS
latest snapshot
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 3-2 | +8.7 | — | Jacksonville sits at No. 1 with an 8.652 rating, but that's down 0.371 from last week and well below the 10.296 prior-season mark, so this is a team trending the wrong way even at the top. The profile is more grind than blowout: 19.6 points scored vs 15.4 allowed over the last five, a modest 0.152 EPA per play and just 5.25 point differential, yet the market still prices them 5.97 points better than the rating implies, which makes them a clear sell — the number is running ahead of the underlying performance. |
| 2 | Δ – | 5-0 | +6.9 | -0.2 | Minnesota grades out as the No. 2 team in the league at 6.88 points better than average on a neutral field, and the underlying form backs it up: 10.0 point differential over the last five with a plus-0.135 EPA per play, driven by a defense allowing just 10.8 points per game. The market is still catching up, with a 5.36 gap between this rating and the spread, so this is a clear buy — lay the points before the number moves. The only caution is a 0.42 rating dip this week and the Harrison Smith practice limitation, though the 0.2 injury dock already accounts for it. |
| 3 | Δ ▲2 | 3-3 | +5.6 | -2.8 | Seattle sits at 3rd with a 5.625 neutral-field rating, up 1.758 this week, but that number is still well below last year's 12.856 and the -0.46 vs-market figure says the public is slightly ahead of the rating. The last-five profile is thin — 21.0 points scored against 17.8 allowed with just a 0.0357 EPA edge per play and a 4.0 point differential — so this is a modest buy-low on the rating, not a team to lay a full spread with, especially with Zach Charbonnet out and a 2.8-point injury dock already baked in. |
| 4 | Δ ▲5 | 4-1 | +5.3 | -1.5 | Cincinnati sits at No. 4 with a 5.25 neutral-field rating, up a massive 2.916 points from last week, and the underlying form backs it: plus-6.0 point differential and plus-0.0916 EPA per play over the last five despite a 22.2 points-per-game offense that hasn't even hit its ceiling. The market is still 2.89 points behind this rating, so this is a clear buy-low window before the number catches up. The 1.5-point injury dock for missing defensive tackles Jonathan Allen, Dexter Lawrence and Bobby Hill is real but already priced in, so grab the value now rather than waiting for the line to move. |
| 5 | Δ ▲2 | 5-0 | +4.0 | — | Buffalo sits fifth with a 3.97 neutral-field rating, up 0.40 this week, but that number is propped up by a soft schedule (-1.05) and still trails last year's 4.50 prior. The market is already pricing them 2.09 points richer than my rating, so this is a sell-high spot — lay the points only when the number stays under a field goal, and otherwise look to the other side. |
| 6 | Δ ▼3 | 3-3 | +4.0 | -1.3 | New England sits at 3.97 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating has dropped 1.82 points in a week and is now 4.28 points clear of where the market has them, which flags this number as inflated relative to a typical spread. The last-five profile is modest rather than dominant — 19.4 points scored against 14.8 allowed, a 0.078 EPA edge per play, and just a plus-5.75 point differential — and a secondary missing Carlton Davis (out) with Kevin Byard questionable is a real drag on a defense that's been carrying this team. Sell high on New England: the market is pricing them closer to their 8.98 prior-season rating than their current form deserves. |
| 7 | Δ ▼3 | 3-1-1 | +3.6 | -0.1 | Detroit sits 7th with a 3.587 neutral-field rating, but that number is trending the wrong way after a 0.624-point drop, and the -1.526 strength of schedule says this 3-1 start came against soft competition. The offense is scoring 27.6 per game over the last five, yet a 23.2 defensive allowance and thin 0.058 EPA differential per play mean this rating is closer to a field goal than the market's 0.4-point lean suggests, so I'm selling Detroit as a small favorite. Brian Branch being questionable is worth monitoring but only costs 0.1 points here, so it's not the story. |
| 8 | Δ ▲6 | 4-2 | +3.3 | -1.0 | Chicago grades out 8th with a 3.31 neutral-field rating that jumped 3.84 points in a week, but the last-five profile is ugly: 13.6 points per game on offense, -0.5 point differential, and just 0.03 EPA per play. The market line of 4.25 is a full point above the rating, so this is a sell-high spot on a team whose 4-2 record is outrunning its scoring margin, especially with Kyle Monangai out and T.J. Edwards doubtful. |
| 9 | Δ ▲1 | 5-1 | +3.2 | -1.1 | Denver grades out at 3.18 points better than an average team on a neutral field, up a hefty 0.92 from last week, and their 5-1 record against a 1.39 schedule strength says this is real rather than a soft start. The market is still pricing them 1.38 points below their rating, so they remain a buy and a live cover in the right matchup. The 18.0 points per game over the last five is the one soft spot, and with Hufanga, Elliss, and Badie out, the defense carrying a 14.0 allowance is doing more of the work than the rating's rise implies. |
| 10 | Δ ▲2 | 2-4 | +3.0 | — | The Rams grade out as a slightly above-average team at 3.03 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 1.456 points this week even though their 2-4 record doesn't show it. Their last-five profile is quietly solid, with a positive 0.175 EPA diff per play and a defense allowing just 18.2 points per game, so this is a buy-low spot: the market has them at -3.15 versus my number, meaning you're getting roughly three points of value against a typical spread. |
| 11 | Δ ▲6 | 5-2 | +2.0 | -0.7 | Pittsburgh's rating jumped 4.34 points this week to 1.99, yet the underlying form is thin: a -0.039 EPA differential per play and just +0.4 point differential over the last five while allowing 23.0 points per game. The 5-2 record and 2.59 vs-market edge make this a sell-high spot, since that modest neutral rating is well short of what a 5-2 team typically commands and the market is likely pricing the record over the profile. With Sebastian Joseph-Day not practicing and Dowdle and Elliott questionable, the docked 0.7 injury points is material to a defense already giving up points. |
| 12 | Δ ▼4 | 5-1 | +1.0 | -4.5 | San Francisco's rating has cratered 2.477 points in a week to 0.955, and with Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Nicholas Bosa all out, that 4.5-point injury dock looks like the market may still be catching up. The underlying form is genuinely good — plus-0.285 EPA per play and a 9.25 point differential over the last five — but a -2.76 gap to the market says the public is still pricing this team on reputation from a 6.566 prior-season rating. That makes SF a sell: the number is inflated relative to what's actually on the field, and I'd fade them laying anything close to a typical spread until the bodies return. |
| 13 | Δ ▲2 | 3-2-1 | +0.7 | -2.1 | Green Bay sits at 13th with a +0.74 neutral-field rating, but the 1.47-point weekly jump and a 1.80 strength of schedule say that number is climbing against real competition. The defense allowing just 14.4 points over the last five is carrying a 17.6-point offense, and the 2.1-point injury dock with Zaire Franklin out and both Watson and Golden limited is a material drag. At 0.7 points below market, this is a modest buy-low on a team whose rating still trails its reputation. |
| 14 | Δ ▼8 | 4-1 | +0.5 | -2.3 | KC grades out at just +0.485 points better than an average team on a neutral field, which is thin for a 4-1 club, and the rating cratered 3.126 points week-over-week with a -1.714 strength of schedule inflating the record. The last-five profile is genuinely strong (22.0 PPG scored, 11.2 allowed, +0.257 EPA per play, +13.5 point differential), but that's already baked into a rating that sits 4.45 points below market, so this is a sell — the market is pricing the Chiefs as contenders while the numbers say they're barely above average, and losing Rashee Rice plus Brashard Smith with L'Jarius Sneed questionable only widens the gap. |
| 15 | Δ ▲15 | 2-4 | -0.8 | -4.6 | Tampa Bay sits at -0.75 rating points on a neutral field, which is basically a coin-flip team, but the 10.7-point jump in rating versus last week is the biggest signal here — this number is moving fast in the right direction. The market already has them 4.3 points better than the rating implies, so the books are ahead of the raw number, and with Baker Mayfield questionable plus Egbuka and Winfield out, the 4.6-point injury dock is doing real work. Buy low on the rating if you can get a number near a pick'em, but don't chase them as a favorite until Mayfield's status clears. |
| 16 | Δ ▼3 | 2-4 | -1.1 | -2.6 | Houston's rating has cratered 2.297 points in a week to -1.054, and the market is still pricing them nearly four points better than that number, which screams sell. The offense is managing just 16.6 points per game over the last five despite a solid 0.104 EPA per play, and losing Blankenship, Montgomery, and Pitre costs them 2.6 points of the rating. This is a team the number says is barely below average on a neutral field, so any spread north of a field goal in their favor is a fade. |
| 17 | Δ ▼1 | 3-4 | -1.4 | -2.8 | Atlanta grades out at -1.4 points versus an average team on a neutral field, a big jump from last year's -2.2 prior rating and up another 0.86 this week, yet the market still prices them 3.12 points worse than my number, making them a clear buy. The offense is scoring 25.8 per game over the last five while the defense allows 26.6, and the -2.8 injury dock for losing Divine Deablo and Brian Robinson is already baked into that rating, so this is a live underdog catching more points than the underlying profile justifies. |
| 18 | Δ ▲2 | 2-4 | -2.8 | -1.4 | Dallas sits at 18th with a -2.785 neutral-field rating, but the 3.143-point jump from last week is the biggest signal here and suggests the market may still be pricing them near their -6.157 prior-season rating. The -5.5 vs-market gap means the number is already shaded against them, and with Dee Winters and KaVontae Turpin out plus a 1.4-point injury dock baked in, this is a buy-low on a team whose last-five EPA diff (-0.066) and point diff (-1.0) are far better than a 2-4 record implies. |
| 19 | Δ ▲10 | 1-3-1 | -4.1 | — | Washington's rating jumped 6.819 points in a week, yet at -4.149 they're still below average, and their -5.25 point differential over the last five games says that surge is more noise than signal. The offense is putting up just 19.4 points per game with a -0.118 EPA per play, so this is a sell-high spot if the market starts pricing them near an average team. The one real edge is that they've beaten the market by 4.05 points, meaning the number has been shaded against them all year, so I'd only bite as a small underdog, not as a favorite. |
| 20 | Δ ▲1 | 2-5 | -4.2 | -0.5 | New Orleans sits at -4.192 points versus an average team on a neutral field, a rating that's trending up 2.017 points week-over-week but still only good for 20th and well below their -3.146 prior-season mark. The last five games tell the real story: 24.4 points scored against 29.4 allowed, a -0.175 EPA differential per play and -5.0 point differential, so this offense is losing the efficiency battle even while the market has them 1.76 points better than their rating implies. That gap makes them a sell — the market is pricing in the recent rating bump, but with Alvin Kamara limited and Nathan Shepherd questionable, I'd fade New Orleans as an overrated side until the defensive numbers tighten up. |
| 21 | Δ ▼10 | 2-3 | -4.8 | -0.3 | Carolina's rating sits at -4.818 points, and that -6.99 weekly drop is the loudest number here — this team is trending hard in the wrong direction despite a manageable -0.175 strength of schedule. The last-five profile (22.8 PPG scored, 19.4 allowed, +0.113 EPA per play) is better than a 2-3 record suggests, so the market's -3.66 vs_market gap looks like an overcorrection — I'd buy low on CAR as an underdog rather than lay points with them. The Jaelan Phillips and Thomas Incoom absences are already baked into the rating dock, so don't double-count them. |
| 22 | Δ ▼4 | 2-4 | -5.0 | -0.7 | The Jets sit at 22nd with a -5.01 neutral-field rating, a big jump from last year's -14.44, and they've been scrappy lately at -3.0 point differential over the last five despite scoring just 15.4 per game. At 2-4 they're outperforming the market by 2.38 points, so this is a quiet buy-low on a team the number still undervalues, though Breece Hall being questionable plus Mauigoa and Ossai out caps the upside. |
| 23 | Δ ▲1 | 3-2-1 | -6.2 | -2.9 | The Giants grade out at minus-6.25 points on a neutral field, 23rd in the league, yet they're 3-2 and beating the market by 3.82 points, so the record is running well ahead of the underlying rating. With a minus-6.0 point differential and minus-0.11 EPA per play over the last five, this is a sell-high candidate whose inflated record could tempt bettors into laying points they shouldn't. The 2.9-point injury dock for Edmunds, Holland, and Newsome is real, and a minus-6.25 rating means they should be underdogs against most opponents, not favorites. |
| 24 | Δ ▼5 | 3-3 | -6.3 | -0.9 | Las Vegas sits at -6.276 points versus an average team on a neutral field, a rating that's fallen another 0.872 this week and still trails its -10.591 prior-season mark, so this is a rebuilding team trending the wrong way. The -1.251 strength of schedule offers no excuse, and with a -0.0514 EPA differential and 21.6 points per game over the last five, the offense isn't doing enough to offset a defense allowing 23.8. At 3-3 with a 0.97 vs-market number, the market has this team roughly priced right, but the rating says it's a sell laying points and a fade candidate as a favorite until the number catches down to its true level. |
| 25 | Δ – | 5-2 | -7.9 | -4.9 | Cleveland sits at 25th with a -7.9 neutral-field rating, so they're roughly a touchdown-plus underdog against an average team, and the 5-2 record is papering over a thin margin — the last-five point differential is just +1.6 with a near-zero EPA diff of 0.024. The rating already docks 4.9 points for injuries, and losing Dillon Gabriel at QB with Denzel Ward questionable is material. This is a sell: the market has them at 0.46 against the number, meaning they're getting more respect than a -7.9 rating warrants, so fade the record and lay the points against them. |
| 26 | Δ ▲5 | 0-5 | -8.1 | — | Los Angeles is 0-5 with a -8.126 neutral rating (26th), and the last-five profile is ugly: 10.6 points scored against 19.0 allowed with a -0.1186 EPA differential per play. The one real positive is a 3.493-point rating jump in a week, but that's a dead-cat bounce on a rating that still sits 4.57 points below the market — the market is pricing this team far better than the numbers say, making LAC a clear sell until the offense shows it can score. |
| 27 | Δ – | 1-4 | -8.2 | -0.2 | Miami sits at -8.162 points versus an average team on a neutral field, ranked 27th, so the market is already pricing them as a bottom-tier squad despite a modest 1.405-point ratings bump this week. The last-five profile is ugly — 12.0 points scored against 23.4 allowed, a -0.2334 EPA differential per play, and a -14.25 point differential — yet their vs_market mark of +4.99 says they've actually outperformed the number, which makes them a sneaky buy-low rather than a fade at typical spreads. The 1-4 record and thin linebacker depth with Willie Gay questionable are real concerns, but at this rating they're being treated like a near-touchdown underdog to an average team, and that's too harsh given the market results. |
| 28 | Δ ▼6 | 1-5 | -8.3 | -3.1 | At 1-5 with a -8.285 neutral-field rating, this team is a clear sell, and the -4.78 vs. market gap says the number is still catching up to how bad things really are. Losing Tyler Warren and Ahmad Gardner while Buckner sits out practice has already cost them 3.1 points in the rating, and a -4.75 point differential over the last five games confirms the underlying form matches the record. Lay the points against them until the market fully prices in this level of dysfunction. |
| 29 | Δ ▼6 | 3-3 | -8.9 | -7.0 | Baltimore grades out at -8.95 points versus an average team on a neutral field, a massive fall from a 3.50 prior-season rating and still trending down at -1.23 this week, with Lamar Jackson out and 7.0 points already docked for injuries. The 18.2 points scored and 18.2 allowed over the last five games with a 0.0 point differential scream mediocrity, yet the market sits 12.04 points away from this rating, meaning Baltimore is being priced far above its true form. This is a clear sell: the number should be closer to a touchdown-plus underdog than whatever the public is laying. |
| 30 | Δ ▼2 | 1-5 | -9.7 | -0.6 | Tennessee sits 30th with a -9.737 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 10-point underdog to an average team, and their 11.2 points per game over the last five explains why. The one bright spot is a 2.81 vs-market number, so they've been covering more than the market expects, and the rating has ticked up 0.985 this week. That makes them a modest buy-low on the number rather than a team to trust straight up, especially with Calvin Ridley questionable. |
| 31 | Δ ▼5 | 2-4 | -10.2 | -3.8 | Arizona sits at 31st with a -10.24 neutral-field rating, down another 1.53 points this week, and the underlying numbers back the slide: -0.24 EPA per play and a -13.0 point differential over the last five, with the offense scoring just 15.2 per game while the defense allows 25.6. The rating already docks 3.8 points for injuries, including Jeremiyah Love, Walter Nolen, and Andrew Wingard, so this is a genuinely bad team rather than a market overreaction. At -1.13 versus the market, they're a clear sell — fade them as favorites and look to lay the points against them while this number keeps sinking. |
| 32 | Δ – | 2-4 | -10.4 | -3.0 | Philadelphia is the worst team in the league by this rating at -10.417 points on a neutral field, and while the number jumped 3.415 versus last week, that's a dead-cat bounce off a brutal baseline. The offense is scoring just 12.4 points per game over the last five with a -0.2266 EPA differential per play, and losing Dontayvion Wicks plus a questionable Saquon Barkley keeps the floor low. The market is already 6.74 points ahead of this rating, so there's no value fading the public here — if anything, this is a sell-high window on any recency-driven bump, not a buy. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →