NFL Prediction Markets

Live game-winner prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, priced against Earl's pregame model. Fees are included in every signal; the model edge is fair value minus the price you would actually pay.

BUY 13AVOID 13NO EDGE 20updated 6:43:43 PM

CAR @ GB

Thu, Oct 29, 3:00 PM CT4 markets

Carolina

kalshi· away· vol 1,815,091

bid / ask

36.0¢ / 37.0¢

fair

35.8%

model edge

-0.7 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 35.8c vs mid 36.5c

Green Bay

kalshi· home· vol 2,187,018

bid / ask

64.0¢ / 65.0¢

fair

64.2%

model edge

-0.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 64.2c vs mid 64.5c

Panthers

polymarket· away· vol 183,145

bid / ask

36.0¢ / 37.0¢

fair

35.8%

model edge

-0.7 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 35.8c vs mid 36.5c

Packers

polymarket· home· vol 183,145

bid / ask

63.0¢ / 64.0¢

fair

64.2%

model edge

+0.7 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 64.2c vs mid 63.5c

TEN @ CIN

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Tennessee

kalshi· away· vol 51,526

bid / ask

15.0¢ / 16.0¢

fair

25.6%

model edge

+10.1 pts

BUY

model 25.6c vs ask 16.0c after fee 8.6c

Cincinnati

kalshi· home· vol 84,556

bid / ask

84.0¢ / 85.0¢

fair

74.4%

model edge

-10.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 83.0c vs model 74.4c

Titans

polymarket· away· vol 4,062

bid / ask

15.0¢ / 16.0¢

fair

25.6%

model edge

+10.1 pts

BUY

model 25.6c vs ask 16.0c after fee 8.6c

Bengals

polymarket· home· vol 4,062

bid / ask

84.0¢ / 85.0¢

fair

74.4%

model edge

-10.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 83.0c vs model 74.4c

BAL @ BUF

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Baltimore

kalshi· away· vol 23,402

bid / ask

38.0¢ / 39.0¢

fair

35.0%

model edge

-3.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 35.0c vs mid 38.5c

Buffalo

kalshi· home· vol 29,547

bid / ask

61.0¢ / 62.0¢

fair

65.0%

model edge

+3.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 65.0c vs mid 61.5c

Ravens

polymarket· away· vol 229

bid / ask

37.0¢ / 38.0¢

fair

35.0%

model edge

-2.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 35.0c vs mid 37.5c

Bills

polymarket· home· vol 229

bid / ask

62.0¢ / 63.0¢

fair

65.0%

model edge

+2.5 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 65.0c vs mid 62.5c

CLE @ PIT

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Cleveland

kalshi· away· vol 53,948

bid / ask

35.0¢ / 37.0¢

fair

47.7%

model edge

+11.7 pts

BUY

model 47.7c vs ask 37.0c after fee 8.7c

Pittsburgh

kalshi· home· vol 16,727

bid / ask

63.0¢ / 65.0¢

fair

52.3%

model edge

-11.7 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 61.0c vs model 52.3c

Browns

polymarket· away· vol 3,005

bid / ask

35.0¢ / 36.0¢

fair

47.7%

model edge

+12.2 pts

BUY

model 47.7c vs ask 36.0c after fee 9.7c

Steelers

polymarket· home· vol 3,005

bid / ask

64.0¢ / 65.0¢

fair

52.3%

model edge

-12.2 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 62.0c vs model 52.3c

ATL @ TB

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Atlanta

kalshi· away· vol 20,520

bid / ask

44.0¢ / 45.0¢

fair

31.0%

model edge

-13.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 42.0c vs model 31.0c

Tampa Bay

kalshi· home· vol 4,653

bid / ask

55.0¢ / 56.0¢

fair

69.0%

model edge

+13.5 pts

BUY

model 69.0c vs ask 56.0c after fee 11.0c

Falcons

polymarket· away· vol 4,149

bid / ask

44.0¢ / 45.0¢

fair

31.0%

model edge

-13.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 42.0c vs model 31.0c

Buccaneers

polymarket· home· vol 4,149

bid / ask

55.0¢ / 56.0¢

fair

69.0%

model edge

+13.5 pts

BUY

model 69.0c vs ask 56.0c after fee 11.0c

ARI @ DAL

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Arizona

kalshi· away· vol 44,445

bid / ask

25.0¢ / 26.0¢

fair

28.4%

model edge

+2.9 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 28.4c vs mid 25.5c

Dallas

kalshi· home· vol 19,388

bid / ask

74.0¢ / 75.0¢

fair

71.6%

model edge

-2.9 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 71.6c vs mid 74.5c

Cardinals

polymarket· away· vol 389

bid / ask

25.0¢ / 26.0¢

fair

28.4%

model edge

+2.9 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 28.4c vs mid 25.5c

Cowboys

polymarket· home· vol 389

bid / ask

74.0¢ / 75.0¢

fair

71.6%

model edge

-2.9 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 71.6c vs mid 74.5c

IND @ JAX

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT2 markets

Colts

polymarket· away· vol 1,350

bid / ask

19.0¢ / 20.0¢

fair

16.9%

model edge

-2.6 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 16.9c vs mid 19.5c

Jaguars

polymarket· home· vol 1,350

bid / ask

80.0¢ / 81.0¢

fair

83.1%

model edge

+2.6 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 83.1c vs mid 80.5c

LV @ NYJ

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Las Vegas

kalshi· away· vol 52,893

bid / ask

46.0¢ / 47.0¢

fair

58.0%

model edge

+11.5 pts

BUY

model 58.0c vs ask 47.0c after fee 9.0c

New York J

kalshi· home· vol 15,087

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 53.0¢

fair

42.0%

model edge

-10.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 50.0c vs model 42.0c

Raiders

polymarket· away· vol 18,148

bid / ask

46.0¢ / 47.0¢

fair

58.0%

model edge

+11.5 pts

BUY

model 58.0c vs ask 47.0c after fee 9.0c

Jets

polymarket· home· vol 18,148

bid / ask

53.0¢ / 54.0¢

fair

42.0%

model edge

-11.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 51.0c vs model 42.0c

MIN @ DET

Sun, Nov 1, 12:00 PM CT4 markets

Minnesota

kalshi· away· vol 83,379

bid / ask

37.0¢ / 38.0¢

fair

14.0%

model edge

-23.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 35.0c vs model 14.0c

Detroit

kalshi· home· vol 19,307

bid / ask

62.0¢ / 63.0¢

fair

86.0%

model edge

+23.5 pts

BUY

model 86.0c vs ask 63.0c after fee 21.0c

Vikings

polymarket· away· vol 671

bid / ask

37.0¢ / 38.0¢

fair

14.0%

model edge

-23.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 35.0c vs model 14.0c

Lions

polymarket· home· vol 671

bid / ask

62.0¢ / 63.0¢

fair

86.0%

model edge

+23.5 pts

BUY

model 86.0c vs ask 63.0c after fee 21.0c

KC @ DEN

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT4 markets

Kansas City

kalshi· away· vol 14,349

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 53.0¢

fair

39.0%

model edge

-13.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 50.0c vs model 39.0c

Denver

kalshi· home· vol 26,059

bid / ask

47.0¢ / 48.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

+13.5 pts

BUY

model 61.0c vs ask 48.0c after fee 11.0c

Chiefs

polymarket· away· vol 1,496

bid / ask

52.0¢ / 53.0¢

fair

39.0%

model edge

-13.5 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 50.0c vs model 39.0c

Broncos

polymarket· home· vol 1,496

bid / ask

47.0¢ / 48.0¢

fair

61.0%

model edge

+13.5 pts

BUY

model 61.0c vs ask 48.0c after fee 11.0c

LAC @ LAR

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT2 markets

Los Angeles C

kalshi· away· vol 13,501

bid / ask

26.0¢ / 27.0¢

fair

27.2%

model edge

+0.7 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 27.2c vs mid 26.5c

Los Angeles R

kalshi· home· vol 10,661

bid / ask

73.0¢ / 74.0¢

fair

72.9%

model edge

-0.7 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 72.8c vs mid 73.5c

NE @ MIA

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT4 markets

New England

kalshi· away· vol 498,234

bid / ask

76.0¢ / 77.0¢

fair

75.2%

model edge

-1.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 75.2c vs mid 76.5c

Miami

kalshi· home· vol 77,747

bid / ask

23.0¢ / 24.0¢

fair

24.8%

model edge

+1.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 24.8c vs mid 23.5c

Patriots

polymarket· away· vol 4,264

bid / ask

75.0¢ / 76.0¢

fair

75.2%

model edge

-0.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 75.2c vs mid 75.5c

Dolphins

polymarket· home· vol 4,264

bid / ask

24.0¢ / 25.0¢

fair

24.8%

model edge

+0.3 pts

NO EDGE

edge inside cost: model 24.8c vs mid 24.5c

PHI @ WAS

Sun, Nov 1, 2:00 PM CT2 markets

Philadelphia

kalshi· away· vol 20,102

bid / ask

30.0¢ / 31.0¢

fair

17.4%

model edge

-13.1 pts

AVOID

market overpays: bid-net 28.0c vs model 17.4c

Washington

kalshi· home· vol 4,056

bid / ask

69.0¢ / 70.0¢

fair

82.6%

model edge

+13.1 pts

BUY

model 82.6c vs ask 70.0c after fee 10.6c

Fair value comes from Earl's pregame margin model turned into a win probability, adjusted for the measured spread of prediction errors. Prices are the venue's own bid/ask in cents on the dollar; a buy must clear the ask plus the quadratic taker fee before it is flagged. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade, and no orders are placed.