NBA Power Rankings — Week 25, 2025
As of 2026-04-13
latest is Week 1, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲1 | 62-21 | +10.3 | — | San Antonio sits at No. 1 with a neutral-field rating of +10.3 points, a massive jump from last season's -3.54, and they've beaten the market by 2.29 points all year at 62-21, so this is a legitimate buy rather than a mirage. The rating is down 0.543 from last week and the schedule has been soft (-0.105), but with zero injury points docked and no key players unavailable, a +10.3 rating means you're laying roughly -10 to -10.5 against an average opponent, and the market's continued underrating of this team makes them worth backing until the number catches up. |
| 2 | Δ ▲3 | 60-22 | +8.9 | — | Detroit sits at No. 2 with an 8.898 neutral-field rating, up a hefty 2.116 points in a week, and that jump is real given a 60-22 record against a soft -0.705 schedule. The market is still catching up: at 2.88 points above the number, this team is a clear buy, since a rating this high versus a typical spread means the lines haven't fully priced the leap from last year's 3.062 prior. No key absences are docked, so the full rating is live. |
| 3 | Δ ▼2 | 64-18 | +8.1 | -2.6 | OKC rates 8.06 points better than an average team on a neutral field, third in the league, but that's down a steep 3.5 points from last week and well below their 12.75 prior-season mark, with 2.64 points already docked for absences including Jaylin Williams, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Joe. The market sits 4.37 points below this rating, so the number is treating them as a fade rather than a buy right now. Until the rotation gets healthier, this is a sell-high candidate whose rating still overstates what they're putting on the floor. |
| 4 | Δ – | 44-38 | +8.0 | — | Charlotte grades out at 8.025 points better than average on a neutral field, a massive +19.9 jump from last season's -11.922 rating, and that rank of 4 is backed by a 44-38 record against a slightly soft schedule (-0.471). The market is still a full 5.08 points behind this rating, so the books haven't caught up and this is a clear buy. The only caution is a small weekly dip of -0.263, but with no key players unavailable, lay the points with confidence. |
| 5 | Δ ▲1 | 54-29 | +7.1 | — | The Knicks grade out at 7.145 points better than an average team on a neutral field, fifth in the league, and that rating jumped 1.544 in a week with no injury dock against a slightly soft schedule (-0.142) — this is a real buy, not a mirage. Their 54-29 record and +1.96 vs the market says the number is still catching up to them, so they're live to cover as modest favorites and a strong play when the spread sits below their rating gap. The prior-season rating of 3.701 shows how far they've climbed, which is exactly the kind of trajectory that keeps public money off them and leaves value on the table. |
| 6 | Δ ▼3 | 56-26 | +5.4 | -3.5 | Boston's rating sits at 5.445 points above average on a neutral field, but that's down a steep 3.301 from last week and well below last season's 8.028, so this is a team trending the wrong way. The rating already bakes in a 3.5-point dock for injuries, with Vučević and Queta both out at center, meaning the market is pricing a compromised frontcourt. At -0.18 versus the market, there's no edge to exploit here — this is a sell-high candidate until the bigs return. |
| 7 | Δ ▲3 | 52-30 | +4.6 | — | Houston grades out 7th at 4.63 points above average on a neutral field, up 0.78 from last week, and that rating already accounts for a fully healthy roster with no injury dock. The market has been pricing them about 1.4 points better than this number, so the rating says they're slightly overrated relative to the spread and the number is a mild sell. A -0.365 strength of schedule adds a sliver of caution, but the 52-30 record and upward trend make this a solid but not special team. |
| 8 | Δ – | 54-28 | +4.0 | -2.2 | Denver sits at 8th with a 4.0 neutral-field rating, down 0.887 from last week and below its 4.648 prior-season mark, so this is a team trending the wrong way. The rating already absorbs a 2.21-point dock for three inactive rotation pieces in Cameron Johnson, Spencer Jones and Christian Braun, which means the market's -0.96 vs_market gap is a mild sell signal rather than a buy-low. At 54-28 with a -0.323 strength of schedule, the record flatters them slightly, and a 4.0 rating means they should be laying only about 4 points to an average team on a neutral floor. |
| 9 | Δ ▲3 | 46-36 | +3.4 | -0.7 | Toronto grades out at 3.427 points better than an average team on a neutral field, good for 9th, and that rating is climbing fast (up 0.657 versus last week) after a massive jump from a -4.854 prior-season mark. At 46-36 with a +1.87 vs-market edge, the Raptors are a clear buy whose true rating already bakes in a 0.68-point dock for RJ Barrett being inactive. With a near-neutral schedule (-0.052), this number says they should be laying roughly 3.4 points to a league-average opponent, so any market spread shorter than that is a signal to back Toronto. |
| 10 | Δ ▼1 | 52-30 | +2.9 | -0.7 | Cleveland sits at 10th with a +2.919 neutral-court rating, but that number is sliding fast, down 1.259 points in a week and a massive 5.6 points below last season's 8.515 mark. The market has already punished them at -2.84 versus the spread, so this is a sell — the rating says they're barely a field-goal favorite against an average team, and with Keon Ellis inactive and 0.66 points already docked for injuries, lay the points against Cleveland rather than with them. |
| 11 | Δ ▼4 | 46-36 | +2.5 | -2.1 | Atlanta sits at 11th with a +2.533 neutral-field rating, but that's down a steep 2.595 points from last week, and the 2.08-point injury dock for missing Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels explains a big chunk of the slide. The 46-36 record and +1.18 vs-market mark say the market has been shading them slightly high all year, so this is a sell on the recent number until the backcourt gets healthy. |
| 12 | Δ ▲4 | 53-29 | +2.1 | -0.8 | The Lakers sit 12th with a +2.064 neutral-field rating, up a sharp 1.119 points versus last week, and their 53-29 record plus a +0.65 vs-market mark says the number has been tracking them fairly. That rating already eats a 0.75-point dock for Jaxson Hayes being inactive, so the market isn't being handed a discount it doesn't deserve. This is a mild buy on the recent surge, not a fade, but at only about two points better than an average team they're a thin favorite against most spreads rather than a blowout play. |
| 13 | Δ ▼2 | 42-40 | +1.9 | — | The Clippers rank 13th at just 1.864 points above average on a neutral field, and that number is trending the wrong way, down 0.927 from last week. The gap between their 8.401 prior-season rating and this year's mark says the market may still be pricing them on reputation, so I'm selling LA against the number until the rating stabilizes. |
| 14 | Δ ▼1 | 49-33 | +1.0 | -1.5 | Minnesota's rating has cratered 1.695 points in a week, leaving them at just 1.032 points better than average on a neutral field — a far cry from last season's 6.812 — and the market has already punished them at -1.98 versus the number. With Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland inactive and 1.54 points already docked for those absences, this is a clear sell: a 49-33 record is propping up public perception while the underlying number says they're barely a home-court edge, so fade them laying points. |
| 15 | Δ ▲2 | 45-37 | +0.5 | — | Orlando sits at 15th with a neutral-field rating of just 0.516 points above average, yet the model has them trending up 1.243 points week-over-week after a 45-37 season against a soft 0.265 schedule. The market line of -1.29 versus the model says books are pricing the Magic about 1.3 points better than their numbers justify — that's a clear sell-high spot, especially with no injury dock (0.0) and a prior-season rating of 0.923 suggesting this year's profile is a step down. |
| 16 | Δ ▲3 | 42-40 | -0.1 | -1.4 | Portland sits at 16th with a -0.132 neutral-field rating, essentially a pick'em team, but the 1.017 weekly jump is the real signal that the market hasn't fully caught up. The 1.45-point injury dock for Vít Krejčí is already baked in, so this rating is a floor rather than a ceiling, and the -0.11 vs-market gap says you're still getting a slight discount on a 42-40 team trending up. Buy low now before the number corrects. |
| 17 | Δ ▲1 | 45-37 | -0.5 | — | PHI sits at 17th with a -0.508 neutral-field rating, essentially a pick'em team despite a 45-37 record, and the +0.411 weekly jump is the real signal here after a brutal -8.609 prior-season rating. With no key players unavailable and a schedule that's basically neutral at -0.031, this is a modest buy-low on a team the market may still be pricing off last year's disaster. At a 0.51 vs-market hit rate they're barely above water against the number, so treat them as a lean, not a bet, until the rating climbs out of negative territory. |
| 18 | Δ ▼4 | 45-37 | -0.9 | -2.7 | Phoenix sits at -0.895 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, ranked 18th, and that rating has cratered 2.692 points in the past week — a clear sell signal. The number already docks 2.68 points for absences (Mark Williams, Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin), so the market's -1.34 against them looks like a trap: this is a sub-.500 caliber team by rating that won 45 games, meaning the public record overrates them and you should lean against Phoenix wherever the spread prices them as a playoff-level side. |
| 19 | Δ ▼4 | 43-39 | -1.4 | -2.7 | Miami sits at 19th with a -1.429 neutral-court rating, but the real story is the -2.505 weekly drop and a -2.22 gap versus the market, meaning the number has been consistently shading this team as worse than its 43-39 record suggests. The rating already bakes in a 2.71-point dock for the absences of Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson and Norman Powell, so don't expect a bounce unless those bodies return. At roughly 1.5 points worse than average, this is a sell on any spread that prices Miami near a pick'em. |
| 20 | Δ – | 26-56 | -3.5 | -0.3 | New Orleans grades out at -3.497 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 20th in the league, and that's a massive jump from a -10.714 prior-season rating even with a tough 0.149 strength of schedule. The market has been slow to catch up, as the +2.15 vs-market number says this team has outperformed the closing line all year, making them a quiet buy at 26-56 rather than the fade their record screams. Bryce McGowens being inactive is the only material absence and it's already baked into the rating, so treat this number as live. |
| 21 | Δ – | 37-45 | -5.5 | -2.5 | Golden State's rating has cratered to -5.486 points (rank 21), down another 0.765 this week, and the market is still pricing them 4.18 points better than that — a gap that screams sell. With Draymond Green, Kristaps Porziņģis, and Gui Santos all inactive and 2.54 points already docked for those absences, this is a team you fade, not back, especially laying anything close to a typical spread. |
| 22 | Δ – | 31-51 | -8.6 | -1.6 | Chicago checks in at 22nd with a -8.6 neutral-field rating, a steep fall from last year's +1.9, and the -0.855 weekly slide says the bottom is still dropping. With Okoro, Richards, and Simons all inactive and 1.64 points already docked for it, this is a clear sell — a -8.6 rating means they should be catching roughly 8.5 to 9 against an average team, so any shorter number is a fade. |
| 23 | Δ – | 26-56 | -8.7 | -2.3 | Dallas sits at 23rd with a -8.69 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 9-point underdog to an average team, and the trend is pointing the wrong way with a -0.619 weekly decline on top of a -5.36 prior-season mark. The 2.31-point injury dock is real with P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall, and Marvin Bagley III all inactive, so this is a thin, depleted roster heading into a 26-56 season. The one small silver lining is that the market has them 0.3 points better than this rating suggests, so they're not egregiously overpriced, but at this number they're a clear sell as a favorite and only a situational back as a big home dog. |
| 24 | Δ – | 19-63 | -9.1 | -2.3 | Indiana's -9.13 neutral rating at rank 24 is a massive fall from a 3.70 prior-season mark, and the 2.33 points of market value they've given back confirms the market was slow to price this decline. The rating already docks 2.34 points for absences like Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, and Kobe Brown, so this is a genuinely bad team even at full health. At 19-63, this is a clear sell until the number catches up to the rating, and the 1.30-point weekly bump is noise, not a turnaround. |
| 25 | Δ – | 32-50 | -10.2 | -1.8 | Milwaukee sits at 25th with a -10.22 neutral-field rating, a massive fall from last season's +3.76, and the 32-50 record confirms this isn't a fluke. The market is still pricing them about 1.8 points better than this rating, so they're a clear sell — that gap is free value for anyone fading them. With Bobby Portis and Kevin Porter Jr. inactive and 1.78 points already docked for those absences, there's no reason to expect a quick fix. |
| 26 | Δ – | 22-60 | -10.9 | -1.4 | At 22-60 with a minus-10.9 neutral rating, Sacramento grades out as one of the worst teams in the league, and the model's 2.33-point edge versus the market says the books have actually been slower than the numbers to price this team's weakness. The rating already bakes in a 1.42-point dock for missing Keegan Murray, Zach LaVine, and Drew Eubanks, so there's no hidden upside to buy here. This is a sell: against an average opponent the fair line is roughly -11, meaning any spread shorter than that is a gift to fade Sacramento. |
| 27 | Δ – | 22-60 | -11.2 | -1.9 | Utah sits at 27th with a -11.23 neutral-field rating, down slightly from last week and worse than last season's -10.46, so this is a team that has genuinely regressed rather than just underperformed its record. The 1.93 points vs. market is the one real buy signal here: the market has been pricing the Jazz slightly worse than this rating suggests, meaning they've quietly covered more than the spread implied. With Filipowski, Collier, and Harkless all inactive and a 1.95-point injury dock already baked in, the rating is honest about the absences, so treat Utah as a mild spread-value play in the right matchup rather than a team to avoid outright. |
| 28 | Δ – | 25-57 | -12.7 | -2.6 | Memphis grades out at -12.7 points versus an average team on a neutral floor, 28th in the league, and the rating is sliding (-1.3 vs last week) with a 25-57 record and a soft 0.363 strength of schedule that makes the win total look even worse. The number already docks 2.63 points for absences, with Cam Spencer, Cedric Coward and GG Jackson all inactive, so there's no hidden upside to buy here. At -1.31 against the market, this is a clear sell — the rating says they're worse than the line implies, and laying anything with Memphis is a trap. |
| 29 | Δ ▲1 | 17-65 | -15.2 | -2.5 | Washington's -15.2 neutral rating ranks 29th and sits below even last year's -12.5 mark, so this is a genuinely bad team, not just a rebuilding one, and the 17-65 record backs it up. The 2.5-point injury dock for missing Coulibaly, Champagnie, and Tre Johnson is material on a roster this thin, so the rating is fair rather than inflated. At 0.67 against the market they've been slightly better than the number suggests, but with a -15 rating they should be laying big plus numbers nightly, making them a mild buy only as a garbage-time cover, not a real one. |
| 30 | Δ ▼1 | 20-62 | -15.9 | -3.4 | Brooklyn is dead last at -15.9 points versus an average team on a neutral field, and that number has cratered 3.7 points in a week, so this is a hard sell with no floor in sight. The rating already absorbs a 3.35-point dock for missing Claxton, Traoré and Powell, which means even the adjusted number is ugly. At -1.65 against the market, the books are still pricing Brooklyn slightly better than this rating implies, so there is real value fading them on any spread that lands a couple points short of this figure. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →