NFL Power Rankings — Week 2, 2026
As of 2026-09-22
latest is Week 3, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲2 | 2-0 | +11.7 | -0.4 | San Francisco sits at No. 1 with an 11.691 neutral-field rating, up 2.957 points in a week, and they're outpacing the market by 2.68 points — that's a clear buy signal if books keep pricing them closer to a touchdown than the 11-plus they grade out to. The last-five profile is genuinely dominant: 31.0 points scored, 10.0 allowed, a plus-21.0 point differential, and a 0.3916 EPA edge per play. The only real caveat is a 0.4-point dock for Kaelon Black and Eddy Pineiro both questionable, which is minor and already baked into the number. |
| 2 | Δ ▲3 | 1-1 | +10.5 | -0.4 | New England sits at number two with a 10.53 neutral-field rating, up nearly three points week over week, and the defense is carrying them at just 8.0 points allowed over the last five. The offense is the drag at 15.0 points per game, so this rating is defense-driven and the market's 9.24 versus my 10.53 makes them a modest buy at roughly a point and a quarter of line value. Carlton Davis being out at corner is the one thing that could bite them against a real passing attack. |
| 3 | Δ ▲1 | 1-1 | +10.0 | — | The Rams grade out as the No. 3 team in the league at 9.999 points better than average on a neutral field, up 1.53 this week, but that rating sits 6.13 points above what the market is pricing — meaning the number is already baked into the spread and there is no edge left on the favorite. The profile is winning ugly: 17.5 points per game and just a plus-1.0 point differential over the last five, propped up by a 0.1538 EPA edge per play that says the offense is moving the ball better than the scoreboard shows. With no injuries docked and a manageable 4.54 schedule strength, this is a hold rather than a buy at the current price. |
| 4 | Δ ▼2 | 1-1 | +8.3 | -0.2 | Jacksonville still grades as the No. 4 team in the league at 8.306 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating fell 3.297 points in a week and sits well below last season's 10.296 prior. The profile is quietly strong: 23.5 points per game against just 15.0 allowed over the last five, a plus-0.1615 EPA per play, and a plus-8.5 point differential, all against a schedule 2.451 points harder than average. At 5.13 points better than the market, the numbers say Jacksonville is underrated and a buy, though Brian Thomas being limited in practice is worth monitoring. |
| 5 | Δ ▼4 | 2-0 | +6.7 | -7.7 | Seattle sits fifth with a 6.747 neutral-field rating, but that number is inflated by an 8.5 points allowed over the last five and a 13.5 point differential that the market is already pricing at just 0.78 points of value. The 7.7-point injury dock for Sam Darnold and Tyler Okada is real and material, and with a 5.283-point weekly rating drop, this is a sell-high spot before the schedule stiffens. |
| 6 | Δ ▲1 | 2-0 | +6.0 | -0.5 | Buffalo sits 6th with a 5.993 neutral-field rating, up 0.93 this week, and the market is still 0.21 points behind that number, so there is a small buy signal here. The concern is a defense allowing 31.0 points per game over the last five while the offense carries a 38.5-point average, and the 0.5-point injury dock with Cole Bishop, Ty Johnson, and Terrel Bernard all banged up is real but modest. At roughly six points better than an average team, they should be laying about a touchdown on a neutral field, so any spread under that is value. |
| 7 | Δ ▲3 | 1-1 | +5.7 | — | Chicago grades out as the No. 7 team in the league at 5.659 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 1.498 points this week while the market sits 0.84 points lower than my number — that gap says the Bears are being underrated right now. The last five games show a 31.0 points-per-game offense against 23.0 allowed, an 8.0 point differential and a positive 0.0829 EPA per play, so this is a legit buy even against a 2.904 strength of schedule. No key players are docked, so there's no injury discount baked in — the rating is clean. |
| 8 | Δ – | 2-0 | +5.4 | -1.0 | Minnesota grades as the No. 8 team with a 5.352 neutral-field rating, up 0.753 from last week, and their last-five profile is genuinely strong: 24.0 points scored, just 12.5 allowed, a plus-11.5 point differential and a 0.1087 EPA edge per play. At 2-0 with a 7.2 vs-market gap, the market is still pricing them well below this number, so they're a clear buy — though the 1.0-point injury dock for Kyler Murray and Jauan Jennings is real and worth monitoring. |
| 9 | Δ ▲6 | 2-0 | +2.1 | -1.3 | Kansas City sits at a plus-2.116 neutral-field rating, ninth in the league, but that number is climbing fast after a 2.582-point jump in a week and a 12.0 point differential over the last five. The offense is humming at 32.0 points per game with a 0.2722 EPA edge per play, and the 1.3-point injury dock for Conner and the questionable Jones and Delane is already baked into the rating. At 2-0 with a soft 0.076 strength of schedule, the market's 0.97 vs. rating gap suggests this team is fairly priced rather than a bargain, so I'm neutral on laying the number until the schedule stiffens. |
| 10 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | +2.1 | -1.7 | Baltimore sits 10th with a +2.08 neutral-field rating, but that number is down a steep 2.162 points from last week and includes a 1.7-point dock for injuries, with Zay Flowers doubtful and Justin Madubuike already out. The offense has been fine at 29.0 points per game over the last five, but a 23.5 defensive allowance and a -6.06 gap versus the market says this rating is inflated relative to how Baltimore is actually being priced. That makes the Ravens a sell right now: lay the points at your own risk, because the number is trending the wrong way. |
| 11 | Δ ▲3 | 1-1 | +0.9 | -1.0 | Denver sits 11th with a 0.944 neutral-field rating, and that number jumped 1.282 points this week even though the last five games show a 15.0 points-per-game offense against 22.0 allowed and a -0.1764 EPA differential per play. The market has them at just 1.01 points versus their rating, so there is no obvious edge either way, but with Marvin Mims out and RJ Harvey questionable, the profile looks shakier than the rank suggests. I would treat Denver as a slight sell until the offense shows it can move the ball without those pieces. |
| 12 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | +0.3 | -0.4 | Detroit sits at No. 12 with a neutral-field rating of just +0.25, and that number is trending the wrong way after a brutal 1.417-point drop from last week. The offense is scoring 31.0 per game over the last five, but the defense is bleeding 35.5, producing a -4.5 point differential and a slightly negative EPA per play (-0.0091) despite a soft 3.095 schedule. At +1.05 versus the market, this is a sell — the rating says they're barely better than an average team, and a typical spread will keep pricing them like the 1.886 prior-season version rather than the flawed current one. |
| 13 | Δ ▼7 | 0-2 | -0.2 | -2.9 | Houston's rating has cratered 5.748 points in a week, and the profile is ugly: 18.5 points scored against 28.0 allowed over the last five, with a -0.1647 EPA differential per play and a -9.5 point differential. The market is still pricing this team 4.6 points better than my number, which makes Houston a clear sell, especially with Nico Collins and Jadeveon Clowney out and Dalton Schultz not practicing. |
| 14 | Δ ▲3 | 2-0 | -0.3 | -3.2 | Cincinnati sits at 14th with a -0.256 neutral-field rating, but that number is misleading because it already bakes in a 3.2-point dock for injuries, including a questionable Joe Burrow. The underlying form is legit: 26.5 points per game, 16.5 allowed, a +0.127 EPA per play, and a +10.0 point differential over the last five, plus a 1.664 rating jump this week. At just +0.07 versus the market, the Bengals are a buy if Burrow plays, since the rating likely understates them and the spread isn't pricing in the full offensive ceiling. |
| 15 | Δ ▲8 | 1-1 | -0.8 | -0.3 | Carolina sits at a -0.845 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be a slight underdog to an average team, but that number jumped 4.281 points in a week on the back of a scorching 35.5 points per game over their last five. The concern is that this surge came against a soft schedule (-1.768), and their defense is bleeding 31.0 points per game over that same stretch, so the market's 1.12-point premium over their rating looks like an overreaction to a scoring binge rather than a real leap. I'm selling high here: this profile screams inflated, and Bobby Brown's absence on the interior doesn't help a run defense already getting gashed. |
| 16 | Δ ▲5 | 1-1 | -1.1 | -0.8 | New Orleans sits at 16th with a -1.103 neutral-field rating, but that's a massive 2.745-point jump from last week and a huge upgrade over last year's -3.146, so this is a clear buy-low team the market hasn't caught up to. The vs_market gap of 8.87 screams that books are pricing the Saints far worse than their actual form, especially with a 27.0 points-per-game offense over the last five. The 0.8-point injury dock for Chris Olave and Chase Young is baked into that rating, so even with those question marks, the number still looks undervalued against a typical spread. |
| 17 | Δ ▼4 | 2-0 | -1.9 | -0.5 | Philadelphia sits at 17th with a -1.879 neutral-field rating, meaning they're nearly two points worse than an average team despite a 2-0 record, and that rating just dropped 2.696 points in a week. The -9.131 strength of schedule screams this start is a mirage built on weak opponents, and the -12.15 vs-market gap says the books aren't buying it either. Sell high on the Eagles now, because a 2-0 team grading out below average is exactly the profile that gets exposed once the schedule stiffens. |
| 18 | Δ ▼6 | 1-1 | -2.5 | -1.1 | Pittsburgh sits at 18th with a -2.506 neutral-field rating, and that number is cratering — down 3.405 points week-over-week — which tells me the market is still catching up to how bad this offense has been. Scoring just 11.5 points per game over the last five with a -0.1475 EPA differential and -5.0 point differential is a bottom-tier profile, and the loss of Joey Porter in the secondary only deepens the hole. At -1.67 versus the market, this is a clear sell — the rating says they're nearly a field-goal worse than average, so any spread pricing them near a pick'em is free money on the opponent. |
| 19 | Δ ▼3 | 0-2 | -2.6 | -0.8 | Indianapolis sits at 19th with a -2.592 neutral-field rating, down 1.296 points from last week, and that slide is justified by a defense allowing 37.0 points per game over its last five while the offense manages just 26.5. The 7.05 vs-market gap screams that the public is still overvaluing this roster, so sell the Colts hard until DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward return to a unit that simply cannot stop anyone. |
| 20 | Δ ▼2 | 1-1 | -3.3 | -0.3 | The Giants sit 20th with a -3.311 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding fast after a -1.373 drop this week, so this is a clear sell. Their last five games tell the story: 17.0 points scored against 24.0 allowed, a -0.2735 EPA differential per play, and a -7.0 point differential, all while facing a schedule 2.963 points tougher than average. With a 6.38 vs-market gap, the market is pricing them better than the underlying numbers justify, and missing corners Deonte Banks and Saiid Adebo only deepens the fade case. |
| 21 | Δ ▲6 | 1-1 | -4.6 | -0.5 | Dallas sits at 21st with a -4.573 neutral-field rating, but the 2.699 jump from last week is the real story, and that surge came against a schedule 6.157 points easier than average, so I'm not buying the full move. The offense is scoring 28.5 over the last five, yet the defense is giving up 24.0 and the EPA differential is essentially zero at -0.0019, meaning this team is winning on volume, not efficiency. At -9.45 versus the market, Dallas is priced like a far better team than the numbers say, so I'm selling the Cowboys and fading any spread that asks them to lay more than a field goal. |
| 22 | Δ ▼2 | 1-1 | -5.2 | -0.9 | Green Bay sits at 22nd with a -5.184 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding fast after a -2.053 drop this week. The last five games tell the story: 21.0 points scored against 28.0 allowed, a -7.0 point differential, and a -0.1456 EPA diff per play, all while missing Javon Hargrave and Warren Brinson up front. At -11.08 versus the market, the books are pricing this team far worse than the rating suggests, so I'm selling Green Bay as an overrated roster until the defensive line gets healthy. |
| 23 | Δ ▼1 | 0-2 | -5.3 | -0.8 | Tampa Bay sits at 23rd with a -5.321 neutral-field rating, and that number is trending the wrong way after a -0.889 drop this week, with an 0-2 record and a -5.0 point differential over the last five. The offense is scoring 23.0 per game but the defense is bleeding 28.0, and the -0.1273 EPA differential confirms this is a below-average team on both sides of the ball. The market is pricing them at -7.77 versus my number, meaning the public is far too down on the Bucs and there's real value buying Tampa against the spread, especially with the rating already baking in a modest 0.8-point dock for absences like A'Shawn Robinson. |
| 24 | Δ ▲5 | 2-0 | -5.5 | -1.1 | Las Vegas sits at 24th with a -5.489 neutral-field rating, but that number is climbing fast after a 3.715-point jump and a plus-0.74 edge versus the market, meaning the books are still a step behind this move. The last five games tell the real story: 26.5 points scored, just 13.5 allowed, a plus-13.0 point differential, and a positive 0.1274 EPA per play, all while playing a schedule 7.874 points below average. Buy the Raiders now, because this rating has room to run even with Brock Bowers doubtful and Darien Porter out, and laying anything near a typical spread built off their 2-0 record undersells how live this team actually is. |
| 25 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | -5.9 | -1.2 | Arizona sits at 25th with a neutral-field rating of -5.917, meaning they'd be roughly 5.9-point underdogs to an average team, and that number is actually a slight improvement on last year's -6.692 despite a small -0.176 dip this week. The offense is the real problem at just 16.5 points per game over the last five, paired with a -0.0488 EPA differential and a -6.0 point differential, so this is a below-average team that the market is still pricing 7.3 points off my number — a clear sell signal given Garrett Williams is out and both Lopez and Billings are questionable. |
| 26 | Δ ▼7 | 0-2 | -6.3 | -0.7 | Los Angeles is a sinking ship at 0-2, and the numbers back it up: a -6.27 neutral-field rating (26th) that cratered 4.16 points in a week, with a -12.0 point differential and -0.261 EPA per play over the last five. Scoring just 14.0 points per game while allowing 26.0 is a recipe for blowouts, and the market is already pricing them 12.05 points worse than their rating suggests, so the books clearly see this as a bottom-tier team. With Ladd McConkey questionable and Elijah Molden out, this is a clear sell — fade any spread that asks them to cover more than a touchdown. |
| 27 | Δ ▼1 | 1-1 | -7.3 | -0.5 | Cleveland sits at 27th with a neutral-field rating of -7.345, down another 0.695 this week and well below last season's -5.522, so this is a clear sell. The last five games tell the story: 16.5 points scored against 26.5 allowed, a -0.1355 EPA differential per play, and a -10.0 point margin, all while facing a schedule 1.993 points harder than average. At -7.345 they'd be underdogs of roughly a touchdown-plus on a neutral field, but the market already prices them 5.18 points better than that, so there's no value buying Cleveland at the current number. |
| 28 | Δ ▲2 | 0-2 | -9.1 | -0.1 | Tennessee sits at 28th with a neutral-field rating of -9.06, and the +1.395 jump from last week is the only encouraging signal in a profile that's still 8.5 points underwater over its last five. The offense is scoring just 15.0 points per game while the defense allows 23.5, and an EPA differential of -0.1042 per play confirms this is a genuinely bad team rather than an unlucky one. The market is pricing the Titans 4.13 points better than my number, so I'm selling Tennessee and laying the points against them until that gap closes. |
| 29 | Δ ▼1 | 0-2 | -10.6 | -0.4 | Miami sits at 29th with a -10.578 neutral-field rating, down another 1.402 this week, and the last five games show the bottom falling out: 13.0 points scored against 31.0 allowed, a -0.2767 EPA differential per play, and a -18.0 point margin. That's a sell, not a buy, and the market is already catching on since this rating is 2.39 points better than the current spread, meaning there's no value left on the Dolphins even against a soft number. The absences of Ronnie Harrison and Demeioun Robinson at linebacker only deepen the defensive problems, though the 0.4-point injury dock suggests the market has largely priced those in. |
| 30 | Δ ▼5 | 0-2 | -11.2 | -1.9 | Washington sits at 30th with a -11.2 neutral-field rating, and that number is cratering — down 5.2 points in a week — after allowing 30.5 points per game over their last five while scoring just 21.0. The market still prices them 8.35 points better than my rating, which makes them a clear sell, especially with Chig Okonkwo and Frank Luvu already ruled out and Javon Kinlaw questionable. At 0-2 with a -9.5 point differential, I'm laying the points against Washington until this rating stabilizes. |
| 31 | Δ – | 1-1 | -11.3 | -1.9 | The Jets are still a bottom-tier team at 31st with a -11.34 neutral-field rating, but the arrow is pointing up after a 1.9-point jump from last week. Their last five games show real life — 20 points per game on offense, just 15 allowed, and a +0.19 EPA per play — yet that came against a schedule 6.6 points easier than average, so don't overbuy this surge. At -3.2 against the market, the number is already pricing in the improvement, and with Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joseph Ossai both out and Will McDonald questionable, this rating has a 1.9-point injury dock baked in — lay the points at your own risk. |
| 32 | Δ – | 0-2 | -21.2 | -12.0 | Atlanta is dead last at -21.196 points versus an average neutral-field team, and the -6.396 weekly drop is the wrong kind of momentum. Scoring 8.0 points per game over the last five while allowing 27.0 is a -19.0 point differential, and with Michael Penix out and Tua Tagovailoa doubtful, the 12.0 docked injury points are fully earned. The market is already 9.61 points off this rating, so there is no buy-low case here — sell Atlanta and lay the number until the offense shows a pulse. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →