NFL Power Rankings — Week 3, 2026
As of 2026-09-29
latest is Week 4, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ ▲3 | 2-1 | +14.6 | -0.3 | Jacksonville sits at No. 1 with a 14.607 neutral-field rating, up a massive 6.301 points from last week on the back of a plus-15.3 point differential and just 12.0 points allowed per game over their last five. The market is still pricing them at 13.57, a full point below their rating, so this is a clear buy — back the Jaguars before the number catches up. The only caution is a thin interior defensive line with DaVon Hamilton limited and Albert Regis doubtful, though the 0.3-point injury dock suggests it is not yet material. |
| 2 | Δ ▼1 | 3-0 | +8.0 | -2.4 | San Francisco sits at No. 2 with a 7.97 neutral-field rating, but that number dropped 3.73 points week-over-week and already bakes in a 2.4-point dock for missing Nick Bosa and Demarcus Robinson. The underlying form is still elite, with 32.7 points scored and just 16.7 allowed over the last five, yet a -2.13 strength of schedule and a 2.26 vs-market gap suggest the market may be pricing them a touch rich right now. Buy the dip only if Bosa returns, because this rating is inflated relative to what the current, shorthanded roster can actually cover. |
| 3 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | +7.6 | -1.8 | Seattle grades out as the No. 3 team in the league at 7.583 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 0.836 this week despite a brutal -1.091 strength of schedule. The last five games tell the story: 25.0 points scored against just 16.67 allowed with a +0.239 EPA differential per play, though the 1.8-point injury dock for losing safeties Julian Love and Tyler Okada is real and worth monitoring. At -0.21 versus the market, the number is basically fair, so I'd hold rather than buy the Seahawks at current spreads. |
| 4 | Δ ▼1 | 1-2 | +6.9 | — | The Rams still grade out as the No. 4 team in the league at 6.855 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating has cratered 3.144 points in a week and their last-five profile is ugly: 20.3 points scored, 21.0 allowed, and a -0.67 point differential. Their 1-2 record against a 3.846 schedule strength says the market's 1.6-point premium over their number is stale — this is a sell-high candidate until the offense finds a pulse, and I'd need the rating to stabilize before laying anything close to a full touchdown with them. |
| 5 | Δ ▲3 | 3-0 | +6.0 | — | Minnesota grades out as the 5th-best team in the league at 6.0 points better than average on a neutral field, and they've backed it up by outscoring opponents by 10.0 points per game over their last five while allowing just 13.7. The 3-0 record comes with a soft schedule (-1.401), so the market's 6.29 rating is basically in line with my number — no real edge either way, but this is a legit top-five unit, not a paper tiger. With zero injury points docked, there's no reason to discount the rating. |
| 6 | Δ ▼4 | 1-2 | +4.4 | -0.7 | New England's rating has cratered 6.152 points in a week, and the underlying numbers justify the fall: 12.0 points per game on offense and a -0.0973 EPA differential per play over the last five are bottom-tier production. At 4.378 points better than average on a neutral field, this team is still being priced 4.18 points better than the market, which makes them a clear sell until the offense shows a pulse. Missing Dre'Mont Jones and Brenden Schooler only deepens the hole. |
| 7 | Δ ▲4 | 2-1 | +4.3 | -0.7 | Denver sits at a 4.341 neutral-field rating, seventh in the league, and that number jumped 3.397 points in a week despite a -0.127 EPA per play and -3.33 point differential over the last five. The market is even higher at 4.94, so the number's already baked in — this is a sell-high spot, not a buy, especially with Jonah Coleman out and Marvin Mims questionable. The 8.769 strength of schedule says the 2-1 record was earned against real competition, but a 20.0 points scored versus 23.3 allowed profile doesn't support laying more than a field goal with this team. |
| 8 | Δ ▲1 | 3-0 | +3.7 | -0.8 | Kansas City sits at a 3.744 neutral-field rating, eighth in the league, and that number is climbing fast with a plus-1.628 jump from last week. The profile is legit: 29.3 points per game on offense against just 16.7 allowed over the last five, a plus-12.7 point differential, and a plus-0.278 EPA per play, all while playing a schedule 2.017 points harder than average. The market is pricing them 2.42 points better than my rating, so I'm not chasing KC at the current number, but this is a clear buy-low candidate if a soft line ever shows up. |
| 9 | Δ ▼3 | 3-0 | +2.8 | -2.3 | Buffalo sits at 3-0 but their 2.807 neutral-field rating is only ninth-best, and that -3.186 weekly drop is the real story — the market still prices them 5.57 points better than this number, so there's clear sell-high value fading the Bills against the spread. The offense is humming at 33.7 points per game over the last five, but a defense allowing 26.0 with Terrel Bernard not practicing and Tanaeri Sanders already out leaves this rating vulnerable to further slippage. |
| 10 | Δ – | 2-1 | +2.3 | -0.6 | Baltimore sits at a 2.34 neutral-field rating, 10th in the league and up 0.257 from last week, but that number is already docked 0.6 points for Zay Flowers being questionable. The offense is humming at 30.7 points per game over the last five, yet the defense is giving up 26.0 and the EPA differential is a thin 0.1114, so this is a good-not-elite team. The real signal is vs_market at -5.18: the market is pricing Baltimore well below what this rating implies, making them a buy as an underrated side against typical spreads. |
| 11 | Δ ▼4 | 2-1 | +0.9 | -7.5 | Chicago sits 11th with a 0.898 neutral-field rating, but that number is already docked 7.5 points for injuries and just cratered 4.761 points week-over-week, so the underlying roster is thinner than the rank suggests. The last-five profile is genuinely strong — 29.7 points scored, 17.7 allowed, plus-12.0 point differential and a 0.1435 EPA edge per play — but Caleb Williams being out at quarterback is the material caveat that makes those offensive numbers hard to trust going forward. At minus-0.48 versus the market, this is a sell: the rating says this team is barely better than average on a neutral field, and with Williams, Sewell, and Turner all unavailable, laying anything close to a typical spread is a losing proposition. |
| 12 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | +0.3 | -1.4 | Cincinnati sits at a modest +0.244 rating, which already bakes in a 1.5-point dock for missing Bobby Hill, Dexter Lawrence, and Andrei Iosivas, so the market treating them as 1.87 points worse than that number tells me this is a buy-low spot. Their last-five profile is quietly solid — 26.7 points scored, 21.0 allowed, +0.124 EPA per play, and a +5.7 point differential — against a schedule 1.5 points below average, so the underlying play is better than the 2-1 record and the market price suggest. |
| 13 | Δ ▼1 | 2-1 | -0.9 | -0.2 | Detroit sits at 13th with a -0.88 neutral-field rating, down 1.13 points from last week, and that decline is real given a defense allowing 31.7 points per game over its last five. The 2-1 record is masking a -0.67 point differential and a near-zero EPA diff (0.0136), so this is a sell-high spot: at -2.63 versus the market, the number is already pricing in more respect than the underlying profile deserves. |
| 14 | Δ ▲2 | 1-2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | New Orleans sits at 14th with a neutral-field rating of -1.788, meaning they're roughly 1.8 points worse than an average team, and that number is trending the wrong way after a -0.685 drop this week. The defense is the real problem: 27.7 points allowed per game over the last five, with an EPA diff per play of -0.0523 and a point differential of -0.67, so this 1-2 record isn't bad luck. The market is still pricing them nearly 5 points better than my number (vs_market +4.94), which makes them a clear sell — lay the points against New Orleans until the rating catches up to reality. |
| 15 | Δ ▲9 | 3-0 | -2.5 | -1.4 | Las Vegas sits at 15th with a -2.515 neutral-field rating, yet they're 3-0 and beating the market by 6 points, fueled by a last-five stretch of 29.3 points scored against just 18.0 allowed and a +0.115 EPA per play. That +2.974 weekly rating jump is real, but it comes against a -5.646 strength of schedule, so this is a sell-high spot before the market fully prices in a soft slate. The 1.4-point injury dock for Brock Bowers (questionable) plus Treydan Stukes (out) and Kwity Paye (questionable) matters if you're laying points with them. |
| 16 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | -2.5 | -1.7 | Pittsburgh sits at 16th with a -2.543 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a field-goal underdog to an average team, and that number already bakes in a 1.7-point dock for injuries. The offense is the real problem: 17.7 points per game over the last five with a -0.138 EPA differential per play, and losing Rico Dowdle plus a questionable Jaylen Warren guts the backfield. At 2-1 with a +1.67 vs-market mark, this team is being priced ahead of its underlying numbers, so I'm selling Pittsburgh against the spread until the offense shows a pulse. |
| 17 | Δ ▼2 | 1-2 | -2.7 | -2.5 | Carolina sits at 17th with a -2.669 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a field goal worse than an average team, and that number is sliding fast after a -1.824 drop this week. The offense has been legitimately hot at 29.7 points per game over the last five, but a defense allowing 27.7 and a 2.5-point injury dock with Devin Lloyd and Nicholas Scott both out tells you this is a sell-high spot, not a buy. Their -0.72 vs-market mark suggests the number has already caught up to the scoring surge, so I'd be looking to fade Carolina if the public keeps pricing them off that offensive output. |
| 18 | Δ ▲1 | 1-2 | -3.1 | -1.7 | Indy sits at 18th with a -3.077 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding (-0.485 this week) while the defense has bled 30.3 points per game over the last five. The market is still pricing them 3.19 points better than my number, so this is a clear sell — lay the points against the Colts rather than backing them. Losing DeForest Buckner and Alec Pierce only deepens the hole, with Buckner's absence especially damaging to a defense already allowing over 30 a game. |
| 19 | Δ ▼6 | 0-3 | -3.1 | -2.9 | Houston sits at 19th with a -3.123 neutral-field rating, and that number is cratering — down 2.921 points in a week after an 0-3 start in which they've been outscored by 7.0 per game and posted a -0.1023 EPA differential. The market is even lower on them at -3.87 versus my number, so there's a sliver of value if you're buying the dip, but with Nico Collins and Jadeveon Clowney out and Dalton Schultz not practicing, that 2.9-point injury dock is doing real work. This is a sell until the rating stabilizes — the 6.427 prior-season rating is a distant memory, and laying anything close to a normal spread with this roster is a trap. |
| 20 | Δ ▲7 | 2-1 | -3.5 | -0.4 | Cleveland sits at 20th with a -3.545 neutral-field rating, but that's a massive 3.8-point jump from last week and well above their -5.522 prior-season mark, so this is a clear buy-low team the market hasn't caught up to. The vs_market gap of 9.19 screams value, especially since their -5.67 point differential over the last five games is dragged down by a brutal 3.735 strength of schedule. With Delpit and Campbell both questionable, watch the injury report before locking anything in, but the number says this team is underpriced. |
| 21 | Δ – | 1-2 | -3.5 | -1.3 | Dallas sits at 21st with a -3.549 neutral-field rating, but the arrow is pointing up after a 1.024 jump from last week, and their -6.157 prior-season rating shows real year-over-year improvement. The market is pricing them 2.24 points better than my number, so I'm selling Dallas at the current spread, especially with Malik Hooker, Decobie Durant, and DeMarvion Overshown all out and a defense allowing 27.3 points over the last five. |
| 22 | Δ ▲1 | 0-3 | -4.5 | -1.0 | Tampa Bay sits at 22nd with a neutral-field rating of -4.534, meaning they're roughly 4.5 points worse than an average team, and their -2.73 vs-market mark suggests the market has been slightly more forgiving than my numbers. The offense is managing just 20.7 points per game over the last five while the defense surrenders 26.3, producing a -0.0823 EPA differential per play and a -5.67 point differential — that's a team you sell, not buy. With Josiah Trotter out and a 1.0-point injury dock already baked into this rating, I'd need a full touchdown of line value before touching them. |
| 23 | Δ ▲2 | 1-2 | -4.5 | -1.0 | Arizona sits at 23rd with a -4.542 neutral-field rating, and the +5.58 vs-market gap screams that this team is being priced far worse than the numbers justify. The 1.375-point weekly improvement and a brutal 4.704 schedule suggest the 1-2 record is misleading, so I'm buying the Cardinals as an undervalued side. The defense allowing 27.0 points per game over the last five is the real anchor, and losing Dadrion Taylor-Demerson at safety only compounds that. |
| 24 | Δ ▲8 | 1-2 | -6.3 | -0.7 | Atlanta sits at 24th with a -6.345 neutral-field rating, but that number is climbing fast — a 14.851-point jump from last week is the kind of move that screams buy-low before the market fully catches up. The problem is the last five games tell a different story: 17.0 points scored against 22.67 allowed, a -0.126 EPA per play, and a -5.67 point differential, all while the market still prices them 2.79 points better than this rating implies. With Ebukam out and Terrell and Bowman banged up in the secondary, I'm not chasing this rating bump until the on-field numbers confirm it. |
| 25 | Δ ▼5 | 2-1 | -6.6 | -2.7 | The Giants sit at 25th with a -6.567 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a touchdown underdog to an average team, and that number just dropped 3.256 points in a week. At 2-1 with a -3.0 point differential and -0.1736 EPA per play over their last five, this is a sell-high spot if the market is still pricing them near .500. The 2.7-point injury dock for Jaxson Dart's absence plus Brian Burns and Deonte Banks both questionable makes them even shakier than that rating suggests. |
| 26 | Δ ▼9 | 2-1 | -6.7 | -3.3 | Philadelphia sits at 26th with a -6.742 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a touchdown underdog to an average team, and that number just cratered 4.863 points in a week. The offense is managing only 18.3 points per game over its last five while allowing 23.0, and the -0.0972 EPA differential confirms this isn't just bad luck. With Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert both out and the market already pricing them 14.67 points below the number, this is a clear sell — they're overrated at 2-1 and the record is masking a genuinely broken team. |
| 27 | Δ ▼1 | 0-3 | -7.8 | -2.2 | Los Angeles is a legit bottom-five team right now, sitting at -7.8 points versus an average neutral-field opponent with a -10.7 point differential over its last five and an 0-3 record. The offense is scoring just 14.7 per game while the defense surrenders 25.3, and the market (-8.4) is actually slightly more pessimistic than my rating, so there's no value buying this team. With Dalvin Tomlinson out and the rating already docked 2.2 points for injuries, this is a clear sell until the number climbs past a touchdown and a hook. |
| 28 | Δ ▼6 | 1-2 | -10.1 | -1.0 | Green Bay sits at 28th with a -10.07 neutral-field rating, and that number is cratering — down 4.88 points in a week on the back of a -11.67 point differential and a defense allowing 30.33 points per game over the last five. The market is pricing them at -11.25 versus my number, so there's no value buying this team right now; they're a sell until the defense shows a pulse. Missing Jayden Reed and Javon Hargrave (questionable) only deepens the hole, and with a -3.05 strength of schedule they can't even blame the slate. |
| 29 | Δ ▼1 | 0-3 | -10.8 | -0.6 | Tennessee sits at 29th with a -10.8 neutral-field rating, down another 1.74 points this week, and that number is already docked for injuries to Pollard, Spears, and Flott. The offense is scoring just 12.3 points per game over its last five while allowing 19.7, and a -0.078 EPA per play confirms this is a genuinely bad team, not a unlucky one. At -2.33 against the market, the number is shading slightly toward the Titans, but with a -5.6 strength of schedule and an 0-3 record, this is a clear sell — lay the points against them rather than backing the rating. |
| 30 | Δ ▼1 | 0-3 | -11.2 | -1.5 | Miami is a bottom-tier team by the numbers, ranked 30th with a neutral-field rating of -11.214, and the last five games have been ugly: 12.0 points scored against 28.7 allowed, a -0.28 EPA per play, and a -16.7 point differential. The market is still pricing this team about 5 points better than my rating, which makes them a clear sell, especially with Caleb Douglas and Robert Beal already ruled out. |
| 31 | Δ – | 1-2 | -11.4 | -1.9 | The Jets grade out at -11.4 points versus an average team on a neutral field, 31st in the league, and their -6.6 strength of schedule is the only thing keeping this from looking even uglier. They're 1-2 with a +1.0 point differential over their last five and a positive 0.104 EPA per play, yet the market already docks them 3.1 points beyond their rating, so the number is pricing in the Minkah Fitzpatrick and Francisco Mauigoa absences. At -11.4 with a soft slate, this is a sell-high spot only if you're getting a spread shorter than the rating implies. |
| 32 | Δ ▼2 | 1-2 | -13.4 | -8.6 | Washington sits dead last at 32 with a -13.4 neutral-field rating, and that number is already docked 8.6 points for injuries, so the absences of Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo, and Nicolas Cross are baked in rather than an excuse. The rating fell another 2.2 points this week, and the -4.04 vs-market gap says the books have been slower than this model to write them off, making them a clear sell or fade candidate laying anything close to a normal number. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →