NFL Power Rankings — Week 6, 2026
As of 2026-10-20
latest is Week 7, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 3-2 | +9.0 | -0.7 | Jacksonville still grades out as the top team in the league at 9.02 points above average on a neutral field, but that rating has slid 2.14 points in a week and sits well below last season's 10.30, so the market's 6.42-point premium over their number looks rich. The last five games show a modest 4.2-point margin and just 0.152 EPA per play on 19.6 points per game, which is winning but not top-rank dominance, and with Montaric Brown out and Jourdan Lewis limited in the secondary, this is a sell-high spot — lay the points only if the line comes in under the rating, not at the current markup. |
| 2 | Δ ▲2 | 4-0 | +7.3 | — | Minnesota grades out as the No. 2 team in the league at 7.3 points better than average on a neutral field, and the rating jumped 1.64 points this week on the back of a 4-0 start with a plus-8.0 point differential over the last five. The defense is carrying this team, allowing just 10.8 points per game over that stretch while the offense manages only 18.8, so the profile is more grind-it-out than explosive. At 7.63 versus the market, the number is already pricing in the hype, so I'm selling the Vikings as a lay candidate until the offense shows it can score enough to cover the inflated lines this rating will command. |
| 3 | Δ ▲5 | 3-2 | +5.8 | -1.5 | New England sits third in the ratings at 5.79 points above average on a neutral field, and the 2.08-point jump from last week is the real story here — this team is trending up fast, not coasting on reputation. The 6.08 vs. market number says the books are actually pricing them slightly richer than my rating, so I'm not chasing this team at current spreads; the value was last week, not now. With Carlton Davis out and A.J. Brown questionable, the 1.5-point injury dock already baked in looks fair, and a 19.4-point scoring average over the last five won't cover inflated lines. |
| 4 | Δ ▲5 | 3-1 | +4.2 | — | Detroit sits at No. 4 with a 4.211 neutral-field rating, up a hefty 2.36 points from last week, and that jump looks real given a 27.6 points-per-game scoring clip over the last five despite a brutal -1.967 strength of schedule. The market is still pricing them 1.16 points below this rating, so they remain a modest buy, and laying anything under about a field goal with them is a fair number rather than a reach. With no key players unavailable and a prior-season rating of just 1.886, this is a genuine step up in class, not a mirage. |
| 5 | Δ ▼2 | 2-3 | +3.9 | -2.5 | Seattle sits at 3.87 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating has cratered 2.72 points in a week and the market has them 2.49 points below where my number says they should be — that gap screams buy-low on a team whose last-five profile (21.0 PPG scored, 17.8 allowed, +0.036 EPA per play) is far steadier than a 2-3 record suggests. The 2.5-point injury dock for losing Zach Charbonnet and Drake Thomas is already baked in, so anyone pricing Seattle off the record alone is underrating them. |
| 6 | Δ – | 4-0 | +3.6 | -1.9 | Kansas City sits at 6th with a plus-3.6 neutral-field rating, but that number has slipped nearly a full point in a week and the 4-0 record is propped up by a minus-4.8 strength of schedule, so this is a soft undefeated team rather than a dominant one. The defense allowing just 11.2 points per game over the last five is doing the heavy lifting, but with Rashee Rice out and the rating already docked 1.9 points for injuries, the offense at 22 points per game is a real concern. The market has KC at minus-1.8 versus my rating, meaning the public is still paying a premium for the brand name, so I'm selling Kansas City as a favorite until the rating stabilizes. |
| 7 | Δ – | 5-0 | +3.6 | -1.1 | Buffalo sits at 5-0 with a 3.57 neutral-field rating that's still top-7, but the -0.526 weekly slide and a -2.99 vs-market gap say the market is pricing them well above their underlying numbers. The offense is scoring 27 a game but the defense is allowing 22.2 over the last five with just a 0.063 EPA edge per play, so this is a sell-high on the Bills against the number. The 1.1-point injury dock with DJ Moore and Joshua Palmer both questionable at receiver only reinforces fading them laying points. |
| 8 | Δ ▼6 | 5-0 | +3.4 | -4.3 | San Francisco is 5-0 with a 3.43 neutral-field rating that's been docked 4.3 points for injuries, and the -4.63 weekly drop is the real story here: this rating is falling fast even as the record stays perfect. With Deebo Samuel out, Bosa out, and Mike Evans questionable, that 25.2 points per game over the last five is doing heavy lifting against a soft -2.4 schedule, so I'm selling the undefeated record rather than buying it. |
| 9 | Δ ▲4 | 3-1 | +2.3 | — | Cincinnati grades out 2.33 points better than an average team on a neutral field, a massive 2.375-point jump from last week, but that +0.26 vs the market says books are already pricing them ahead of the raw number. The soft -1.709 strength of schedule and a 4.8 point differential over the last five (22.2 scored, 17.4 allowed, +0.0916 EPA per play) explain the surge, but this is a sell-high spot — the market has caught up, so there's no edge laying the inflated number. |
| 10 | Δ ▲1 | 4-1 | +2.3 | -1.3 | Denver's +2.256 neutral-field rating ranks 10th and jumped 1.142 points off last week, yet that number already eats a 1.3-point injury dock with Patrick Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga both out, so the secondary is thinner than the rating implies. The 4-1 record is propped up by a defense allowing just 14.0 PPG over the last five while the offense sputters at 18.0 and a near-zero 0.01 EPA diff per play, meaning this team is winning ugly and the market's 1.14-point premium over the rating looks fair rather than generous. Buy the defense, sell the offense covering any number north of a field goal. |
| 11 | Δ ▲1 | 2-2 | +2.2 | -0.3 | Carolina grades out at 2.17 points better than average on a neutral field, and the rating jumped 1.86 points in a week — a massive move off a prior-season rating of -3.39, so this is a real buy signal, not noise. The market is still pricing them 3.95 points worse than my number, which is a full field goal of edge; the 22.8 points scored vs. 19.4 allowed over the last five with a positive 0.113 EPA per play backs it up, even with AJ Dillon out and Jaelan Phillips questionable. |
| 12 | Δ ▼7 | 1-4 | +1.6 | — | The Rams grade out at just 1.57 points better than an average team on a neutral field, and that rating has cratered 3.2 points in a week, which is a red flag given a 1-4 record against the toughest schedule in this sample (0.692). Their last-five profile is mediocre rather than awful — 20.8 points scored, 18.2 allowed, +0.18 EPA per play — so the market's -5.6 vs. their rating says the public is still pricing them on name value, making them a sell until the number catches down to their true level. |
| 13 | Δ ▼3 | 2-3 | +1.2 | -2.4 | Houston sits at 1.243 points above average on a neutral field with a rating that's trending up (+0.081), but that already includes a 2.4-point dock for losing David Montgomery and Jalen Pitre, which is a real drag on a 2-3 team. The last-five profile is ugly on offense (16.6 PPG) and they're a -0.66 vs-market underperformer, so at rank 13 they're priced like a fringe top-third team while the underlying numbers say they're closer to a coin-flip spread team — I'd sell Houston against any number that asks them to lay more than a field goal. |
| 14 | Δ ▲1 | 3-2 | -0.5 | -4.0 | Chicago grades out at -0.53 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which is basically a pick'em — but that number already eats a 4-point injury dock with Caleb Williams questionable and T.J. Edwards and Odeyingbo out, so the healthy version of this team is meaningfully better than the market's view. The profile is a low-scoring grinder: 13.6 points per game on offense against 14.0 allowed over the last five, with a near-zero EPA differential, so this is a sell on any total and a buy on the Bears catching points once Williams is confirmed. The +1.93 vs. market mark says the number has been shaded against them, and a 1.409 strength of schedule explains the modest 3-2 record better than the raw rating does. |
| 15 | Δ ▲2 | 3-2 | -0.7 | -2.3 | Green Bay sits at -0.74 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which is a below-average rating that the market has already priced past, given their -1.42 vs-market gap. The last-five profile is modest but real: 17.6 points scored against 14.4 allowed, a +3.2 point differential, and a thin +0.056 EPA per play, with the rating already docked 2.3 points for the absences of St-Juste, Moore and Hargrave. That makes them a slight buy at plus-money against typical spreads, since the number is shading a tick too far against a team whose recent form is quietly positive. |
| 16 | Δ – | 2-4 | -2.3 | -1.5 | Atlanta sits at -2.166 points versus an average team on a neutral field, down 1.24 this week, and that rating already bakes in a 1.4-point dock for injuries, with Christopher Henderson out and Drake London limited. The offense has posted 25.8 points per game over the last five but the defense allows 26.6, and a -0.0456 EPA differential per play matches a 2-4 record. At +3.36 versus the market, the Falcons are being priced better than their rating suggests, so I'm selling Atlanta as a small underdog rather than backing the inflated number. |
| 17 | Δ ▼3 | 4-2 | -2.4 | -3.8 | Pittsburgh sits at 17th with a -2.35 neutral-field rating, down 1.49 points from last week, so this is a team trending the wrong way despite a 4-2 record. The 3.8-point injury dock is doing real damage here with DK Metcalf not practicing and Roman Wilson and Armentae Elliott out, which explains why the market (-0.16 vs. my number) is only barely off my rating. At roughly 2.3 points worse than average, they should be priced as a small home underdog or road dog of a field goal or more depending on matchup, and given the negative rating momentum and the receiving corps attrition, I'm selling Pittsburgh rather than buying the record. |
| 18 | Δ ▲6 | 2-3 | -5.3 | -2.9 | The Jets are a clear buy right now: their rating jumped 2.1 points this week to -5.3, and they're beating the market by nearly 4 points (vs_market 3.98) despite a 2-3 record. That -5.3 neutral rating means they'd be roughly 5.5-point underdogs to an average team, so any spread pushing them past about a touchdown is worth backing. The caveat is the 2.9-point injury dock with Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell out, which caps the ceiling on an offense averaging just 15.4 points over its last five. |
| 19 | Δ ▲6 | 3-2 | -5.4 | -1.5 | Las Vegas sits at 19th with a -5.4 neutral-field rating, but the +2.1 weekly jump and a 3.63-point edge over the market say the books are still pricing this team closer to its -10.6 prior-season rating than its current form. The last-five profile is mediocre, not bad — 21.6 points scored against 23.8 allowed with a -0.05 EPA diff — so at roughly 5.5 points worse than average, they're a mild buy as a road dog rather than a team to lay points with. The 1.5-point injury dock for Terrell Hemingway and Dont'e Thornton is already baked into that number, so don't double-count it. |
| 20 | Δ ▼2 | 1-4 | -5.9 | -0.6 | Dallas sits at 20th with a -5.93 neutral-field rating, and the -1.17 weekly slide plus a -6.93 vs-market gap says the market already knows this is a below-average team. The offense is averaging just 19.4 points over the last five with a -0.066 EPA per play, so the 1-4 record is earned, not unlucky. With Decobie Durant out and Overshown questionable, this is a sell — the rating implies they should be getting roughly a touchdown against an average opponent, and they haven't shown the scoring to cover that. |
| 21 | Δ ▲2 | 2-4 | -6.2 | -1.9 | New Orleans sits at -6.2 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which is a below-average rating that's trending up 0.67 points week over week. The last-five profile is ugly: 24.4 points scored against 29.4 allowed, a -0.175 EPA differential per play, and a -5.0 point differential, all with a 1.9-point injury dock baked in for absences like Kaden Elliss (Out) and the questionable Olave and Kamara. At 2-4 with a +0.42 vs-market number, this is a sell — the market is still pricing them closer to their prior-season -3.1 rating than their current form, so I'd look to fade New Orleans laying or even catching modest numbers. |
| 22 | Δ ▼2 | 1-4 | -7.3 | -1.5 | Indianapolis is a bottom-tier team by the numbers, rated -7.3 points versus an average squad on a neutral field with a -1.29 weekly slide, and its -3.73 gap to market means the public still prices the Colts better than this model does. The offense is scoring just 18.2 per game over the last five with a -0.02 EPA per play, and losing DeForest Buckner up front plus Ashton Dulin only deepens the hole. This is a clear sell — lay the points against Indy rather than backing them. |
| 23 | Δ ▼4 | 3-2 | -7.7 | -8.3 | Baltimore is a clear sell at -7.7 points neutral-field, down 2.0 from last week, and the market still has them 10.6 points better than this rating implies, so the number is badly stale. Losing Lamar Jackson plus an 8.3-point injury dock explains the collapse from a 3.5 prior-season rating, and with the last five games producing a dead-even 18.2-18.2 scoring split and zero point differential, this is a bottom-tier team the public hasn't caught up to. |
| 24 | Δ ▼2 | 2-2-1 | -7.9 | -1.2 | The Giants grade out at minus-7.9 points versus an average team on a neutral field, 24th in the league, and the rating is trending the wrong way after a 1.3-point drop this week. That number is propped up by a soft minus-4.5 schedule, and with a 14.4-point scoring average over the last five and a minus-0.11 EPA differential per play, this offense isn't built to keep pace; losing Theo Johnson at tight end only thins the passing game further. The market has been slower to bury them than my rating has, so I'm selling New York and looking to fade them whenever a spread prices them closer to average than this minus-7.9 figure suggests. |
| 25 | Δ ▲1 | 4-2 | -7.9 | -6.5 | Cleveland grades out at -7.9 points versus an average team on a neutral field, a rating that already eats a 6.5-point dock for missing Dillon Gabriel, Kalia Davis and Dylan Sampson, so the 4-2 record is propping up a team the number says is closer to a bottom-five outfit. The +3.15 vs-market mark is the tell: they've been beating the closing line, and with a 1.6 point differential over the last five and a modest 0.024 EPA edge per play, this is a sell-high spot — the market is still pricing them closer to their record than their true strength. |
| 26 | Δ ▲1 | 2-3 | -8.7 | -2.9 | Arizona's -8.71 neutral-field rating ranks 26th and has slipped slightly again this week, and the underlying numbers are ugly: 15.2 points per game on offense against 25.6 allowed over the last five, with a -0.24 EPA differential per play and a -10.4 point differential. The one thing keeping them from being a full sell is that they're 2.02 points better against the market than their rating implies, so the number is already shaded toward them. With Jeremiyah Love out and the safety room thinned by Wingard's absence and Baker's questionable tag, this is a roster you fade in the right matchup rather than one you buy. |
| 27 | Δ ▲2 | 0-4 | -9.6 | — | Miami sits at 27th with a -9.567 neutral-field rating, and the underlying numbers are even uglier than that: -11.4 point differential over the last five, 12.0 points per game on offense, and a -0.2334 EPA per play. The one silver lining is a 0.946 rating bump week-over-week against the second-toughest schedule in the league (2.918), which suggests the market may be slightly overcorrecting on a team that's been beaten up by opponents rather than being truly this bad. At 6.63 points better than the market, Miami is a cautious buy-low on the spread, but with zero wins and no key absences to blame, don't chase it until the offense shows a pulse. |
| 28 | Δ ▲4 | 1-4 | -10.7 | -1.1 | Tennessee is a 1-4 team whose -10.7 neutral-field rating ranks 28th, but the number is trending up with a 3.68-point weekly gain and a +3.63 vs-market mark that says the market is still pricing them worse than this rating does. The offense is the anchor dragging everything down at just 11.2 points per game over the last five, and with Kevin Winston and Jordan Elliott out and Tyjae Spears questionable, that side of the ball gets no relief. At this rating they're a live buy as a home dog getting more points than they should, but I'd only back them at a number that clears the -10.7 by a full field goal. |
| 29 | Δ ▲2 | 1-3-1 | -11.0 | -6.4 | Washington sits at -10.968 points versus an average team on a neutral field, ranked 29th, and that number already eats a 6.4-point injury dock with Mariota out and Diggs questionable. The rating is trending up 2.256 points week over week, but a -0.1178 EPA differential and -4.2 point differential over the last five say the on-field product hasn't caught up, and the market at -1.01 versus my number makes this a sell, not a buy. |
| 30 | Δ ▼2 | 1-4 | -11.5 | -9.1 | Tampa Bay is a bottom-tier team by the numbers, sitting 30th with a -11.46 neutral-field rating that's trending the wrong way after a 1.2-point drop this week, and the market is already ahead of that at -4.21 versus my number. The offense is managing just 15.6 points per game over the last five with a negative EPA per play, and losing Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and David Sills only deepens the hole. This is a clear sell — the rating says they're roughly 11.5 points worse than average, so any spread that doesn't reflect that is a bet against Tampa Bay. |
| 31 | Δ ▼1 | 0-5 | -11.6 | -4.3 | At -11.6 points versus an average team on a neutral field, LAC grades out as the second-worst team in the league, and their 10.6 points per game over the last five with a -0.119 EPA per play confirms the offense is a genuine problem rather than bad luck. The market is still pricing them about 6.9 points better than this rating, which makes them a clear sell — you're laying far too few points to fade a winless 0-5 team with Derwin James, Donte Jackson, and Cleveland Harris all out. Until the number catches up to the rating, I'm looking to bet against them every week. |
| 32 | Δ ▼11 | 2-3 | -13.8 | -10.3 | Philadelphia is the worst team in the league by a wide margin at -13.83 points on a neutral field, and the rating is collapsing, down another 7.34 points in a week after losing Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and Will Shipley. The 10.3-point injury dock is doing real work here, and with a -0.23 EPA per play over the last five and just 12.4 points per game, this is a clear sell — the market is still pricing the Eagles 10.47 points better than this rating, so lay the points against them until the number catches up. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →