NFL Power Rankings — Week 5, 2026
As of 2026-10-13
latest is Week 6, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 3-1 | +11.2 | -0.8 | Jacksonville sits at No. 1 with an 11.158 neutral-field rating, but that number slid 3.949 points in a week, so the market's 8.16-point gap versus their rating looks like a buy-low window rather than a reason to chase. The defense has been the real engine, allowing just 10.6 points per game over the last five while the offense grinds out 20.2, and a 0.249 EPA differential per play supports the 9.6 average margin. With Joshua Hines-Allen and Jourdan Lewis limited in practice, that 0.8 injury dock could grow, so I'd sell Jacksonville only if those practice tags turn into game-day scratches. |
| 2 | Δ – | 4-0 | +8.1 | -1.8 | San Francisco grades as the No. 2 team in the league at 8.06 points better than average on a neutral field, and their 4-0 record is backed by a plus-10.2 point differential over the last five with a 0.29 EPA edge per play. The market is still catching up, as their 4.21 vs-market gap says they've been undervalued relative to closing lines, though the 1.8-point injury dock for losing Bosa and Sigle is real and worth tracking. At this rating, laying anything under a touchdown feels like the right side until the number fully adjusts. |
| 3 | Δ ▲1 | 2-2 | +6.6 | -1.6 | Seattle sits third in my ratings at 6.589 points better than average on a neutral field, up 0.627 this week, but that number already bakes in a 1.6-point dock for Zach Charbonnet and Chazz Surratt being out, so the on-field product is thinner than the rank suggests. The offense is grinding at just 20.8 points per game over the last five while the defense carries them at 16.4 allowed, and a pedestrian 0.0613 EPA differential tells me this 2-2 team is winning ugly. That 6.589 rating would slot them as roughly a touchdown favorite on a neutral field, which is more than the market's 0.1 vs-market edge implies, so I'm selling Seattle at anything close to a full touchdown until the offense shows real life. |
| 4 | Δ ▲3 | 4-0 | +5.7 | -1.2 | Minnesota grades as the No. 4 team in the league at 5.663 points better than average on a neutral field, and that rating jumped 1.332 this week even with a 1.2-point injury dock baked in for Jefferson, Addison, and Jones. The defense is carrying this 4-0 start, allowing just 10.8 points per game over the last five with a plus-8.0 point differential, all while the offense grinds to 18.8 per game. At 5.28 versus the market, the number sits close to the rating, so this isn't a screaming buy, but if the receiving corps gets healthy the rating has room to climb. |
| 5 | Δ ▼2 | 1-3 | +4.8 | — | The Rams are still the 5th-ranked team in my numbers at +4.77 points over an average neutral-field opponent, but that rating has cratered 1.89 points in a week and sits a full 1.91 points below where the market has them — that gap makes them a clear sell right now. A 1-3 record with a -1.0 point differential and just 19.0 points per game over the last five weeks doesn't justify the market's price, even with a 3.49 schedule strength and no key injuries docked. |
| 6 | Δ – | 3-0 | +4.5 | — | Kansas City sits at No. 6 with a 4.522 neutral-field rating, but that number is trending the wrong way after a 0.572-point drop, and the market is pricing them 0.76 points below even that mark. The underlying profile is genuinely strong — 12.5 points allowed and a plus-9.5 point differential over the last five, with a 0.2305 EPA edge per play — against a soft minus-3.375 schedule, so this looks like a modest buy-low if the market discount holds. |
| 7 | Δ ▲1 | 4-0 | +4.1 | -2.4 | Buffalo sits 7th with a 4.096 neutral-field rating, up 1.465 from last week, but the market is pricing them 2.65 points better than my number, so this is a sell-high spot rather than a buy. The 4-0 record masks a modest 5.2 point differential over the last five and a thin 0.0815 EPA edge per play, and the 2.4-point injury dock for Edward Oliver and the receiver absences (Palmer out, Moore questionable) is real. Lay the points with caution or look to fade Buffalo if the number climbs further. |
| 8 | Δ ▲1 | 2-2 | +3.7 | -4.6 | New England sits at a 3.707 neutral-field rating, up 1.27 this week, but that number already eats a 4.6-point injury dock with Carlton Davis and Christian Gonzalez both out of the secondary. The offense is the real anchor at just 16.2 points per game over the last five, so this is a sell-high spot: the market's 5.18 vs-market gap is pricing a healthier, better team than the one actually taking the field. |
| 9 | Δ ▲8 | 3-1 | +1.9 | -1.7 | Detroit sits at No. 9 with a 1.851 neutral-field rating, up a massive 3.99 points week-over-week, yet the market still prices them 1.97 points below that number — a clear buy signal on a team the books haven't fully caught up to. The offense is humming at 27.6 points per game over the last five, but a 23.2 points-allowed average and a modest 0.0579 EPA differential say this rating leans on scoring volume more than dominance, and the 1.7-point injury dock with Brian Branch and Ya-Sin both out of the secondary is a real concern. At 3-1 against a soft minus-2.75 schedule, treat Detroit as a slight overperformer whose spread value hinges on whether that banged-up defense holds. |
| 10 | Δ ▲11 | 1-3 | +1.2 | -0.3 | Houston sits 10th with a +1.162 neutral-field rating, but that number is inflated by a 4.009 weekly jump against the softest schedule in the league at -1.869, and their 1-3 record with a -1.43 vs-market gap says the books aren't buying it either. The offense is scoring just 16.0 points per game over the last five while the defense carries them at 15.6 allowed, so with Nico Collins limited and Marvin Stewart questionable, this is a sell-high spot — lay the points against Houston before the market corrects. |
| 11 | Δ ▼6 | 3-1 | +1.1 | -1.9 | Denver sits at 11th with a +1.114 neutral-field rating, but that number is cratering, down 4.031 points week-over-week, and the market is already ahead of it at -1.34 versus my line. The offense is the problem: 16.6 points per game and -0.072 EPA per play over the last five, and losing both Riley Moss and Patrick Surtain in the secondary is a real dock (1.9 points baked in) that makes this defense vulnerable despite allowing just 17.4. Sell Denver — a 3-1 record is masking a team whose rating says it should be an underdog, not a favorite, and the market hasn't fully priced in the cornerback losses yet. |
| 12 | Δ ▲1 | 1-2 | +0.3 | — | Carolina sits 12th with a neutral-field rating of +0.309, and that number is climbing fast — up 0.443 from last week, the biggest mover on the board, on the back of a +0.0856 EPA differential and a 22.25 points-per-game offense over the last five. The market is still pricing this team like its -3.391 prior-season rating, which is why they're beating the number by 4.55 points against the spread; that gap says the books haven't caught up, so buy Carolina before the lines do. No key players are docked, so this rating is clean, and a -0.413 strength of schedule means the 1-2 record undersells what this team actually is. |
| 13 | Δ ▼1 | 3-1 | -0.0 | -2.2 | Cincinnati sits at 13th with a neutral-field rating of -0.041, but that number is already docked 2.2 points for injuries and just fell 0.238 from last week, so the market's -2.68 vs. their rating tells me books are pricing this team well below its 3-1 record. The skill-position absences of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the real story here, and with a -2.193 strength of schedule inflating that win total, I'm selling Cincinnati as an overrated 3-1 team until the receiving corps gets healthy. |
| 14 | Δ ▲6 | 3-2 | -0.9 | -1.9 | Pittsburgh sits at 14th with a -0.867 neutral-field rating, but the 1.955 jump from last week is the real story, and their +1.99 mark against the market says books are still pricing them a notch below where this number sits. The 22.2 points scored versus 21.8 allowed over the last five, paired with a -0.0447 EPA differential, screams mediocrity rather than a team ready to cover consistently. With Michael Pittman, Jamel Dean, and Armentae Elliott all out and 1.9 points already docked for those absences, I'm selling Pittsburgh at any spread that asks them to lay more than a field goal. |
| 15 | Δ ▼5 | 2-2 | -0.9 | -2.9 | Chicago sits at 15th with a -0.891 neutral-field rating, but that number is bleeding — down 2.208 points week-over-week and already docked 2.9 points for injuries, including a questionable Caleb Williams and an out Kyle Monangai. The +1.76 vs-market mark says the public still prices these Bears closer to their 2.447 prior-season rating than this current roster deserves, so I'm selling Chicago hard until the injury picture clears. |
| 16 | Δ – | 2-3 | -0.9 | -0.6 | Atlanta sits at 16th with a neutral-field rating of -0.926, meaning they grade out essentially as a league-average team despite a 2-3 record. The rating jumped 1.118 points week-over-week, and their +3.71 mark vs the market screams buy-low — the books have been pricing them worse than their underlying numbers justify. With Za'Darius Smith and Nnamaka Ebukam questionable on the edge, the 0.6-point injury dock is real, but this is still a team the spread is undervaluing. |
| 17 | Δ ▲9 | 2-2 | -1.1 | -1.1 | Green Bay sits at 17th with a -1.1 neutral-field rating, meaning they're a hair below average, and that rating already bakes in a 1.1-point dock for missing Chris Brooks and Savion Williams with Javon Hargrave questionable. The offense is the problem: 17.4 points per game over the last five with a -0.0115 EPA per play and a -2.2 point differential, so this is not a unit that's moving the ball efficiently. The 8.5-point rating jump versus last week looks like noise against that profile, and with a -4.38 gap to market, I'm selling Green Bay as an overrated side until the offense shows real life. |
| 18 | Δ ▲1 | 1-3 | -4.8 | -0.6 | Dallas sits at 18th with a -4.759 neutral-field rating, and that number is sliding fast after a -1.951 drop week-over-week, so this is a clear sell. Their -0.0521 EPA differential and -0.4 point differential over the last five weeks confirm a team barely treading water at 1-3, and the market's -4.96 vs. my -4.759 says the number is priced about right, no edge there. With Overshown and Durant both out, the defense is thinner than the rating already reflects, so I'm fading Dallas against any spread under a touchdown. |
| 19 | Δ ▼8 | 3-1 | -5.7 | -8.3 | Baltimore grades out at -5.681 points versus an average team on a neutral field, which slots them 19th and means they'd be getting roughly a touchdown against a top-tier opponent right now. The market is even lower on them at -10.01 versus the number, and with Lamar Jackson out and an 8.3-point injury dock baked into that rating, this is a clear sell — you're paying a premium for a Baltimore team that's a shell of its prior-season 3.502 rating. The one caution: that -6.505 weekly rating drop is violent enough that the number may have overcorrected, so I'd want the full Jackson absence priced in before laying anything. |
| 20 | Δ ▼2 | 1-3 | -6.0 | -2.5 | Indianapolis sits at 20th with a -6.027 neutral-field rating, down a steep 3.369 points from last week, and that slide is real: they're averaging just 18.8 points while allowing 25.0 over the last five, with a -0.111 EPA per play and a -6.2 point differential. The market is already pricing them 2.21 points better than my number, so this is a clear sell — especially with DeForest Buckner not practicing and Keenan Allen questionable, a 2.5-point injury dock that's fully baked into the rating. |
| 21 | Δ ▲3 | 2-2 | -6.5 | -4.2 | Philadelphia sits at 21st with a -6.493 neutral-field rating, and the market is even lower on them at -5.29 versus my number, so there's a small buy signal here despite the ugly 2-2 record. The offense is grinding at just 14.4 points per game over the last five with a -0.18 EPA differential per play, and that's with Marquise Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Marcus Epps all unavailable, a 4.2-point dock already baked into the rating. The 2.09-point weekly jump is real momentum, but I'd need the injury situation to clear before treating this as anything more than a marginal value play. |
| 22 | Δ ▲1 | 2-1-1 | -6.6 | -1.2 | The Giants sit at 22nd with a -6.60 neutral-field rating, down 2.55 points from last week, and their last-five profile is ugly: 14.6 points scored per game against just 16.4 allowed, with a -0.08 EPA differential per play. That -6.60 rating means they'd be roughly a 6.5-point underdog to an average team on a neutral field, yet they're 4.46 points better against the market than their rating suggests, so the number is clearly pricing in more than the underlying metrics justify. With Chauncey Golston and Jason Pinnock both out and 1.2 points already docked for those absences, this is a sell-high spot if the market keeps treating them as a live team. |
| 23 | Δ ▲4 | 1-4 | -6.9 | -1.5 | New Orleans sits at 23rd with a -6.877 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a touchdown underdog to an average team, yet they've outperformed the market by 0.29 points per game and just posted a 2.783-point rating jump. The underlying numbers are ugly though: -0.2057 EPA per play and a -6.6 point differential over the last five, with a defense allowing 30.2 points per game, and losing Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings only thins that unit further. This is a sell-high spot if the market starts pricing them near a full touchdown against quality opponents. |
| 24 | Δ ▲7 | 2-2 | -7.4 | -2.9 | The Jets sit at 24th with a -7.425 neutral-field rating, but that number is climbing fast after a 5.704-point jump from last week, and their last-five profile is quietly solid: 16.2 points scored against just 14.6 allowed with a positive 0.0582 EPA differential per play. At 2-2 against a -2.994 schedule, they're a buy-low candidate, though the 2.9-point injury dock for Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, and Francisco Mauigoa means that -7.425 is already pricing in real absences, so don't expect the market to hand you much value. |
| 25 | Δ ▼10 | 3-1 | -7.5 | -2.4 | Las Vegas sits at 25th with a -7.5 neutral-field rating, but that number is inflated by a 3-1 record against a soft -3.4 schedule and a brutal -5.5 rating drop this week. The offense is averaging just 21 points over its last five with a -0.015 EPA per play, and the rating already docks 2.4 points for Jalen Nailor and Dont'e Thornton being out, so this is a clear sell-high candidate. |
| 26 | Δ ▼12 | 3-2 | -8.4 | -5.5 | Cleveland sits at 26th with a -8.42 neutral-field rating, and that number is cratering — down 6.82 points from last week, the steepest slide you'll see, with a -0.057 EPA differential and a point differential of -3.8 over the last five. The market has been slow to catch up, as this team is still outperforming the spread by 4.09 points, which screams sell-high before the number corrects. With Dillon Gabriel, Mason Graham, and Kalia Davis all out and 5.5 points already docked for those absences, this rating is honest — fade Cleveland laying anything close to a fair number. |
| 27 | Δ ▼5 | 1-3 | -8.6 | -1.0 | Arizona sits at 27th with a neutral-field rating of -8.593, and that number is sliding fast after a -4.585 drop week-over-week. The offense is scoring just 16.8 points per game over its last five while the defense surrenders 25.2, producing a -0.176 EPA per play and a -8.4 point differential that matches the ugly 1-3 record. At roughly 8.5 points worse than an average team, the Cardinals are a clear sell — and with Andrew Wingard out and Walter Nolen questionable, this rating could keep bleeding. |
| 28 | Δ ▲2 | 1-3 | -10.3 | -8.6 | Tampa Bay sits at 28th with a -10.25 neutral-field rating, and that number already bakes in an 8.6-point dock for Baker Mayfield, Antoine Winfield, and Benjamin Morrison being out, so the on-field product is even thinner than the 1-3 record suggests. The offense is managing just 17.2 points per game over its last five with a -0.02 EPA per play, and a -1.8 point differential against a soft 0.485 schedule tells me this team is worse than its results look. At -3.3 against the market, the books are still pricing Tampa Bay closer to average than my numbers do, making this a clear sell and a fade candidate until Mayfield returns. |
| 29 | Δ ▼1 | 0-4 | -10.5 | -0.9 | Miami sits at 29th with a -10.5 neutral-field rating and an 0-4 record, and the offense is the real problem: 12.0 points per game over the last five with a -0.233 EPA per play. The one silver lining is a 6.84 vs-market number, meaning the market has been slower to price this team down than my rating has, so there's mild buy-low value on the number even though the roster is thin with Caleb Douglas and Robert Beal out. |
| 30 | Δ ▼5 | 0-4 | -11.8 | -5.0 | At 0-4 with a -11.8 neutral-field rating, the Chargers are the second-worst team in the league by this number, and the -2.56 drop from last week says the market is still catching down to how bad this actually is. The offense is scoring just 12.2 points per game over the last five while the defense allows 19.8, a -7.6 point differential that lines up with the -8.04 vs-market gap, so there's no buy-low case here. Losing Derwin James and Quentin Johnston on top of a 5.0-point injury dock makes this a sell or stay-away until the number gets genuinely ugly. |
| 31 | Δ ▲1 | 1-2-1 | -13.2 | -8.0 | Washington sits 31st with a -13.22 neutral-field rating, and the 8.0-point injury dock is doing real damage with Mariota out and both Diggs and McLaurin compromised. This rating already bakes in those absences, so the market's -2.96 vs_market gap tells me books are pricing them closer to a typical spread than their true talent warrants — that's a sell signal on any number that looks competitive. The -0.057 EPA diff and -3.4 point diff over the last five weeks confirm this isn't just a paper problem. |
| 32 | Δ ▼3 | 0-4 | -14.4 | -1.8 | Tennessee is the worst team in the league by a wide margin, with a -14.4 neutral-field rating that's fallen another 3.3 points in a week and sits 7.1 points below even their weak prior-season mark. Scoring just 8.0 points per game over the last five while allowing 17.0 is a recipe for blowouts, and with Amani Hooker out and the offense already punchless, this is a clear sell-high-on-the-opponent spot — lay the points against the Titans until the market prices them as the doormat the numbers say they are. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →