NFL Power Rankings — Week 4, 2026
As of 2026-10-06
latest is Week 5, 2026
| # | Team | Rec | Rating | Inj | Earl's Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Δ – | 2-1 | +15.1 | -0.5 | Jacksonville grades out as the No. 1 team in the league at 15.107 points better than average on a neutral field, up 0.5 from last week and a massive jump from a 10.296 prior-season rating. The last five games tell the story: 20.5 points scored against just 9.0 allowed, a plus-11.5 point differential, and a 0.244 EPA edge per play, all while facing a 2.892 strength of schedule. With the market sitting at 15.11 against a 15.107 rating, there's essentially no edge in the number itself, so the real question is whether you're buying the leap from last year's 10.296 — and with Montaric Brown, Christian Braswell, and Albert Regis all questionable, that 0.5 injury dock could grow. |
| 2 | Δ – | 3-0 | +7.9 | -2.7 | San Francisco sits at No. 2 with a 7.94 neutral-field rating, and that number already bakes in a 2.7-point dock for missing Bosa and Mykel Williams, so the defense holding opponents to 12.5 points per game over the last five is even more impressive. The market is undervaluing them by roughly 2.98 points against the number, which makes SF a clear buy, especially with a 3-0 record and a plus-12.0 point differential over that stretch. |
| 3 | Δ ▲1 | 1-2 | +6.7 | — | The Rams grade out as the third-best team in the league at 6.661 points above average on a neutral field, but that rating has slipped 0.194 points and sits a hair below market at -0.27, so there's no free value here. Their profile is ugly for a top-three team: 15.25 points per game on offense over the last five, a -0.5 point differential, and a 1-2 record, even though the 0.1677 EPA differential per play suggests they've moved the ball better than the scoring shows. With no injuries docked and a manageable 4.011 schedule strength, I'd treat this rating as slightly inflated and lean toward selling Los Angeles until the offense converts those efficient drives into points. |
| 4 | Δ ▼1 | 2-1 | +6.0 | -3.0 | Seattle sits fourth with a 5.96 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast, down 1.62 points week-over-week, and the market is already pricing them 2.09 points worse than this rating suggests. The defense has been legit over the last five (12.5 points allowed per game), but an 18.75 offensive average with both Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet out at running back makes this a sell-high spot. Take the points against Seattle until the backfield gets healthy. |
| 5 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | +5.1 | -0.3 | Denver sits at No. 5 with a 5.145 neutral-field rating, up 0.804 from last week, and that number already bakes in a 0.3-point dock for Dondrea Tillman being out. The offense is a real concern at just 15.0 points per game over the last five with a -0.1027 EPA differential per play, yet the defense has held opponents to 17.5, which is why the market rating of 4.78 sits just below the raw 5.145. At roughly five points better than an average team, Denver is fairly priced against a typical spread, so I'd treat this as a hold rather than a buy until the offense shows it can support the defensive effort. |
| 6 | Δ ▲2 | 3-0 | +5.1 | — | Kansas City sits at No. 6 with a 5.094 neutral-field rating, up 1.35 points this week, and their last-five profile is legit: 22.0 points scored against just 12.5 allowed, a plus-9.5 point differential, and a 0.2305 EPA edge per play. The market is still pricing them 0.82 points below my number, so I'm buying KC — that gap is worth real value against a typical spread, especially with a clean injury report (0.0 docked) and a soft -2.072 strength of schedule. |
| 7 | Δ ▼2 | 3-0 | +4.3 | -2.2 | Minnesota sits at 4.331 points better than average on a neutral field, but that rating dropped 1.669 from last week and already bakes in a 2.2-point dock for Justin Jefferson being out. The 3-0 record is masking a shaky offense scoring just 17.75 points per game over the last five, though the defense has been stingy at 10.25 allowed. At 3.4 points above market, this looks like a sell-high spot. |
| 8 | Δ ▲1 | 3-0 | +2.6 | -2.1 | Buffalo sits 3-0 but their 2.631 neutral-field rating is down 0.176 from last week and well below last season's 4.503, propped up by a soft -2.943 strength of schedule. They're winning on the scoreboard (25.25 PPG, 5.75 point diff last5) but the underlying 0.0856 EPA diff per play says this is a thinner team than the record suggests, especially with 2.1 points docked for injuries to Benford, Bernard, and Moore. At -6.5 vs the market, I'm selling Buffalo as a favorite until the rating stabilizes. |
| 9 | Δ ▼3 | 1-2 | +2.4 | -2.3 | New England sits at 9th with a +2.437 neutral-field rating, but that number is sliding fast after a 1.941-point drop and a -3.75 point differential over the last five. The offense is scoring just 9.0 points per game with a -0.0607 EPA per play, and the defense is already docked 2.3 points for the absences of Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore, so this rating looks inflated relative to a market that has them 3.62 points better than the number. Sell New England — a +2.4 rating against a 7.816 strength of schedule with that scoring profile is a fade, not a buy. |
| 10 | Δ ▲1 | 2-1 | +1.3 | -7.9 | Chicago sits at 1.317 points better than an average team on a neutral field, and that rating is climbing fast (up 0.419 this week) on the back of a 9.0 point differential over the last five and a defense allowing just 13.25 points per game. The market's 1.63 versus my 1.317 already bakes in a 7.9-point dock for Caleb Williams being out, so the public is pricing this team slightly richer than the numbers justify. That gap makes Chicago a mild sell at current spreads, especially with the offense capped at 22.25 points per game without its starting quarterback. |
| 11 | Δ ▼1 | 2-1 | +0.8 | -1.0 | Baltimore sits at 11th with a neutral-field rating of just 0.824 points, and that -1.513 weekly drop is a red flag given they've only managed a 3.5 point differential over their last five. The -8.07 vs market number screams that books are pricing the Ravens well above what this rating justifies, making them a clear sell, especially with Zay Flowers questionable and the schedule having been soft at -3.376. If the rating holds, this team is overrated by roughly a touchdown against a typical line. |
| 12 | Δ – | 2-1 | +0.2 | -1.6 | Cincinnati sits at a modest +0.197 rating on a neutral field, but that number is sliding fast after a 0.147-point drop this week, and it's already docked 1.6 points for missing Dexter Lawrence and Kyle Dugger. The -1.52 vs-market gap says the public is pricing the Bengals well above where my numbers do, so this is a clear sell — lay the points against them or take the plus on their opponent. Their 4.25 point differential over the last five weeks masks a soft schedule (-1.672), so don't be fooled by the recent record. |
| 13 | Δ ▲4 | 1-2 | -0.1 | -1.5 | Carolina sits at 13th with a neutral-field rating of -0.134, but the real story is that 2.535-point jump from last week against a strength of schedule of 2.056 — this team is trending up fast after a brutal early slate. At 1-2 with a +4.63 vs-market gap, the books are still pricing them like the -3.391 team they were last season, which makes them a clear buy, especially with a positive EPA diff per play (0.0856) over the last five. The 1.5-point injury dock stings with Legette out and Coker questionable at receiver, so I'd want to see those absences reflected before laying anything, but the number is moving in their favor. |
| 14 | Δ ▲6 | 3-1 | -1.6 | -0.1 | Cleveland sits at 14th with a -1.605 neutral-field rating, meaning they grade out as a slight below-average team despite a 3-1 record, and that 3.201 strength of schedule suggests the wins haven't come easy. The rating jumped 1.94 points versus last week and sits a massive 12.19 points above market, so the books are still pricing this team well below where my numbers have them — that's a clear buy signal. Tylan Wallace being out is a minor dock at just 0.1 points, but with a -3.5 point differential and -0.035 EPA per play over the last five, this is a team the market is undervaluing relative to a typical spread. |
| 15 | Δ – | 3-0 | -2.0 | -0.3 | Las Vegas sits at 15th with a -1.977 neutral-field rating, but that number is climbing after a 0.538 jump and a 3-0 start backed by a +8.5 point differential and just 13.5 points allowed over the last five. The market is still pricing them 7.81 points worse than my number, which makes this the clearest buy in the league right now. Brock Bowers and Cody White being limited in practice is worth monitoring, but the 0.3-point injury dock is baked in and shouldn't scare anyone off. |
| 16 | Δ ▲8 | 2-2 | -2.0 | -0.5 | Atlanta sits at 16th with a -2.044 neutral-field rating, but that number is trending hard in the right direction after a 4.301-point jump from last week. The profile is middling to slightly below average — 24.0 points scored vs. 23.0 allowed over the last five, a +0.0274 EPA differential — and the -3.654 strength of schedule suggests this 2-2 record was built against softer competition. The real signal is the vs_market gap of 6.48, meaning the market is pricing Atlanta far better than my rating does, so I'm selling the Falcons as an overrated side; the questionable tags on Divine Deablo, Nnamaka Ebukam, and Yasir Abdullah are already baked into that 0.5-point injury dock. |
| 17 | Δ ▼4 | 2-1 | -2.1 | -0.4 | Detroit sits at 17th with a -2.139 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a couple points worse than an average team, and that number dropped 1.259 points from last week despite a 2-1 record. The offense is putting up just 23.25 points per game over the last five while allowing 23.75, with a near-zero EPA differential (-0.0077) that confirms this is a mediocre, not dangerous, unit. The real tell is the -5.52 gap versus the market, so the public is pricing Detroit well above what the numbers support; that makes them a sell, especially with Dennis Reed questionable in the secondary. |
| 18 | Δ – | 1-2 | -2.7 | -0.9 | Indianapolis sits at 18th with a -2.658 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly a 2.7-point underdog to an average team, and their -0.0863 EPA per play over the last five weeks confirms this is a below-average unit. The one bright spot is that they're 0.65 points better than the market prices them, plus a 0.419 rating bump this week, so there's a mild buy-low case if the number gets inflated by their 1-2 record. With Keenan Allen and Ashton Dulin both questionable and a 0.9-point injury dock already baked in, I'd want a full field goal or more before backing them. |
| 19 | Δ ▲2 | 1-2 | -2.8 | -0.6 | Dallas sits at 19th with a -2.808 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly a field goal worse than an average team, though the 0.741 jump from last week shows real upward momentum. The offense is grinding at just 22.0 points per game over the last five with a near-zero EPA differential (-0.0134), so this 1-2 record isn't hiding some secretly elite unit. With Overshown and Durant both out, I'm selling Dallas as anything more than a small home underdog — the market's -0.7 vs. my number suggests there's no edge fading them, but there's also no reason to back them laying points. |
| 20 | Δ ▼4 | 2-2 | -2.8 | -1.7 | Pittsburgh sits at 20th with a -2.82 neutral-field rating, meaning they're nearly a field goal worse than an average team, and that number is sliding after a -0.28 dip this week. The offense is managing just 19.25 points per game over its last five while the defense allows 21.75, producing a -0.108 EPA differential and a -2.5 point differential that matches the rating almost exactly. With Joey Porter and Rico Dowdle already out and Jalen Ramsey questionable, this is a sell — the market's +1.06 vs. rating edge suggests Pittsburgh is being priced a point too generously. |
| 21 | Δ ▼2 | 0-3 | -2.8 | -2.0 | Houston sits at 21st with a -2.847 neutral-field rating, a 0-3 team whose offense has cratered to 13.5 points per game over its last five while the defense holds at 18.75. The market is pricing them 4.52 points worse than my number, so this is a buy-low window on a roster that graded 6.427 a season ago before a 2.0-point injury dock for Al-Shaair, Clowney, and Stewart. That gap versus the number is real value if the defensive front can survive those absences. |
| 22 | Δ ▲1 | 1-2 | -4.0 | -0.5 | Arizona sits at 22nd with a -4.008 neutral-field rating, meaning they're roughly four points worse than an average team, and their 3.26 vs-market mark says the books have been pricing them even lower than that. The offense is the anchor dragging them down at just 15.75 points per game over the last five, paired with a -0.1399 EPA per play, so this is a sell until the scoring shows real life. The 0.534 rating bump and a soft-ish schedule context keep them from being a full fade, but losing Dadrion Taylor-Demerson in the secondary only tightens the ceiling. |
| 23 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | -4.0 | — | The Giants sit at 23rd with a -4.05 neutral-field rating, but that number is climbing fast after a 2.517-point jump from last week, and their 5.52-point edge versus the market says the books are still pricing them like the team that went 2-1 against a soft -2.011 schedule. The offense is the problem at just 11.5 points per game over the last five, and a -0.0882 EPA differential with a -2.25 point differential means this rating is being propped up by defense and luck rather than substance. Buy the rating trend, but sell the Giants as a spread play until the offense shows it can move the ball. |
| 24 | Δ ▲2 | 2-1 | -8.6 | -4.8 | Philadelphia sits at 24th with a -8.583 neutral-field rating, meaning they'd be roughly 8.6-point underdogs to an average team, and that number is sliding fast after a -1.841 drop week-over-week. The offense is the real problem: 13.75 points per game over the last five with a -0.157 EPA per play, and losing Marquise Brown and Dallas Goedert only compounds it (4.8 points already docked for injuries). At -11.2 versus the market, the books are pricing Philly even lower than my rating suggests, so I'm not rushing to buy this dip until the offense shows a pulse. |
| 25 | Δ ▲2 | 0-3 | -9.2 | -3.0 | At -9.244 points versus an average team on a neutral field, the Chargers grade out as the 25th-best team in the league, and their -8.19 vs-market mark says the oddsmakers have actually been shading them slightly more favorably than this rating justifies. The last five games tell the story: 11.0 points per game on offense against 19.0 allowed, a -0.1391 EPA differential per play, and an 0-3 record with a -8.0 point differential, so this is a clear sell until the offense shows a pulse. The rating already docks 3.0 points for absences like Dalvin Tomlinson and Charlie Kolar, but with Ladd McConkey questionable, the passing game could get thinner still. |
| 26 | Δ ▲2 | 1-2 | -9.6 | -0.9 | Green Bay sits at 26th with a neutral-field rating of -9.6, and the last five games paint a grim picture: 14.0 points scored against 22.75 allowed, an EPA differential of -0.136 per play, and a -8.75 point margin. That rating already docks 0.9 points for injuries, with Edgerrin Cooper questionable and Warren Brinson out thinning the front seven, so this is a clear sell — the market at -12.42 versus my number suggests the public is still pricing Green Bay on reputation rather than the product on the field. |
| 27 | Δ ▼13 | 1-3 | -9.7 | -3.5 | New Orleans sits 27th with a -9.66 neutral-field rating, and that number cratered 7.87 points in a single week — this is a team in freefall, not a buy-low. The defense has surrendered 32.0 points per game over its last five while the offense's 26.25 points can't keep pace, and losing Kaden Elliss and Carl Granderson from an already thin front seven only deepens the hole. At -3.03 versus the market, the books are still pricing the Saints a field goal better than their underlying numbers justify, so I'm selling New Orleans and looking to fade them as a favorite or take the points against them. |
| 28 | Δ ▲2 | 0-3 | -10.9 | -1.0 | Miami sits at 28th with a -10.9 neutral-field rating, and that 0-3 record is no fluke: 9.0 points per game and a -0.232 EPA per play over the last five says this offense is broken. The one silver lining is a 6.71 vs-market gap, meaning the number has already sunk so far that the Dolphins are a live buy-low if the market keeps pricing them like a bottom-three team. With Caleb Douglas and Robert Beal both out, don't expect a quick fix, but the -10.9 rating is closer to a two-touchdown underdog than the three-score dogs they'll be priced as in spots. |
| 29 | Δ – | 0-3 | -11.1 | -0.6 | Tennessee sits 29th with a neutral-field rating of -11.086, and that number is sliding (-0.286 vs last week) on the back of a brutal 9.25 points per game over their last five. The defense has actually held up at 14.75 allowed, but a -0.1152 EPA differential and 0-3 record tell you this offense can't stay on the field. At -11 on a neutral field, they're a sell in any game where the market prices them closer than two touchdowns, especially with Tyjae Spears and Kevin Winston both questionable. |
| 30 | Δ ▼8 | 0-3 | -11.2 | -8.2 | Tampa Bay sits at -11.248 on a neutral field, 30th in the league, and that rating just fell 6.714 points in a week — this is a hard sell, not a buy. The market is still pricing them 7.32 points better than my number, which means there's real value fading the Bucs, especially with Baker Mayfield out and 8.2 points already docked for injuries. At 0-3 with a -4.25 point differential and -0.0766 EPA per play over the last five, this team is overrated until the number catches down to reality. |
| 31 | Δ – | 1-2 | -13.1 | -3.7 | The Jets are 31st in my ratings at -13.13 points on a neutral field, and that number already bakes in a 3.7-point dock for Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, and a questionable Kenyon Sadiq, so there's no hidden value in the injury list. Their last-five profile is a statistical illusion: 16.0 points scored and 15.25 allowed looks respectable, but a -6.98 strength of schedule and a +0.036 EPA differential per play tell you they've been feasting on weak opponents while barely outscoring them. At -5.49 versus the market, the number is already shaded against them, and with the rating dropping another 1.71 points this week, I'm selling any Jets optimism until the schedule stiffens. |
| 32 | Δ – | 1-2 | -14.1 | -9.2 | Washington is the worst team in the league by a mile, sitting at -14.1 points on a neutral field with a rating that's fallen another 0.69 points this week and a brutal -4.25 point differential over its last five. The market is still pricing them roughly 2.9 points better than my number, which makes them a clear sell, especially with Jayden Daniels and Rachaad White both out and Terry McLaurin questionable — that 9.2-point injury dock is doing real work here. At 1-2 against the 32nd-ranked rating, any spread inside two touchdowns is a gift to whoever's laying the points. |
Rating is in points on a neutral field: a team's rating minus its opponent's approximates the spread. Rec is the team's W-L-T through this week. Δ Wk is movement vs last week. Inj is the rating points docked for key players ruled out/doubtful/questionable this week. SOS is the average rating of opponents faced, in points vs league average (negative = easier schedule). vs Mkt is Earl's rating minus the market's (from closing lines), placed on Earl's points scale — positive means Earl is higher on the team than the market. How Earl rates teams →